Ana_Idkit

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1. ray says:
   June 10th, 2008 at 9:18 am e Announcement:

   Try www.moneycontrol.com

   Just recorded:

   Ray Barros, CEO of Ray Barros Trading Group said that a close below 4,453 would indicate start of the bear market. He feels that India’s chart is not as bad as China’s, which is in a bear market. According to him, there is a need to break 4,453 – 5,545 range on the upside for reversal. If we close above 4,590, Nifty may bounce back to 5,000 levels, he said. Crude is forming a temporary top, it will not see USD 150-200 levels soon, Barros said. US stock market is likely to enter a bear phase in next few months, Dow’s close below 11,635 would signal a bear market, he added. Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Ray Barros:

   Q: Crucial question on the Nifty and where you see that headed?

   A: Let’s have a look at some critical levels. To me, Nifty had this low coming at 4,453. The Nifty then rallied back up to 5,545 – they are the two sides of the equations. If we get a close below 4,453, that would be a preliminary indication that the bear market has started. A subsequent close below 4,300 will confirm that in the Nifty the bear market has started.

   Q: We will come back to, but China was the market that we were talking about. That’s down 6% this morning and India and China have been falling hand in hand throughout 2008. How is that looking?

   A: The Chinese market is looking pretty awful. Last year I had said that it would drop 50% but I didn’t expect it to drop 50% in quite a short time that it occurred. Market then rallied about 33% retracement level and it’s on the way now to challenging those lows. I would like to be a bit positive here; I would like to see those lows hold. If they can hold then we will form a trading range between the reaction high and the current low. If that level breaks we do not have much support and I would even begin to hazard a guess where the bottom might be found.

   Q: When you look at the entire Asian pack, do India and China look like among the weaker charts because they have been the under performers in 2008? A: India’s chart doesn’t look as bad as the Chinese. The Chinese are clearly in a bear market, the Indian one still has some chance. If you look at the Sensex, we have the low coming in at 14,677 levels and we still haven’t closed below that low. If Sensex can rally from here, it might continue to form this trading range between 17,735. So to me the Indian market is not quite as weak as China. The China market is clearly in the bearish market and is struggling to find a base. For the Indian market, the bear market hasn’t officially started.

   Q: We made a new low for the year yesterday, if you do play for some kind of strength or a bounce back on these markets, how high do you think it could go? A: I think a closing low is far more important. Yesterday Nifty made a low below 4,453 but then closed well above it. And if Nifty can have a close above 4,590, then it is good to run to 5,003. If it clears that level, then investors are good to run to 5,545. And if we can clear that and close above 5,760 then investors may have a run to 6,300.

   I am overall bearish on world stock markets. I think any run in the Nifty will be contained by the 5,545 area. I am just not convinced that the Indian market is ready to break. We would need to see a close below 4,453 and then a close below 4,300 and that to me would confirm that the bear market has started in the Indian stock market.

   More to come

   http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/video/stockmarket/11/40/newsvideo/341845

   http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/fii-view/close-below-4453-to-indicate-startb/11/50/341845

   Ana aka IDkit

June 10, 2008:

Click for interview for recording thereafter: Try www.moneycontrol.com:

========================================================== I came across this video while searching for something else on mentor Ray. I was under the impression the OR read article:

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Ray Barros, Fund Manager, Author & Educator has aview that Indian markets are holding up better than the Chinese markets. He also adds that if Nifty breaks 4,668, markets may test Jan lows Excerpts from the exclusive interview with Ray Barros: Q: How have you read the risk aversion towards emerging markets and how would you plot out the rest of the year in terms of a performance for them? A: I will answer the second question first; to me the world markets are getting set for bear market. I am looking for critical levels at the moment on the Nifty at about 5,545 if we can get above that then I think we will be okay. If we break below the 4,468-4,448 area, then I think you are going to be in a bear market will come to pass. In terms of the Sensex, the critical level for me is the 14,677 and then 13,779, those are very critical levels on the downside. On the upside, we have got quite a way to go. It is about 16,452 if we can clear that then I think you have got a good run all the way to the 20,278 area. But I am not hopeful. Q: Some technical analysts have made the point that the odd seem higher that our market will actually go back to test the January lows and maybe trade below that, how high would you rate those chances? A: I think we need to break below 14,067 area base for the Sensex and 4,468 base the Nifty. If we take those levels out then of course I think the chances are very good until we do I think it is a 50:50 bet. Q: How are you reading developments or trends across other global markets right now and do you think this trend of India and China continuously underperforming is going to continue for a while? A: Let us take China first, I think globally the US, London, Footsie, the DAX and the Australian SPX are very similar to the Indian markets and are trading on some very critical levels. In the S&P for example, we are looking at 1,70-1,258 on the downside, 1,400 on the upside basis cash. If you can take 1,400 out on the upside, then we are going to have another run at the highs. On the other hand if we get down to the 1,270 levels I think we are going to take that out and I think we will be in for a bear market that as far as the western nations are concerned. I think China is already in a bear market, we are getting some bear market rallies in the Shanghai index but overall I think that is already in a bear market. I think the Indian market is holding up better than the Chinese markets. So right now the Indian market is probably in the best in the category and unless we take out this 14,677 level base for the Sensex and 4,468 base for the Nifty, I am not prepared to say we are going to have the bear market but if we take those levels out then I think the bear market is started. Q: What about what is happening with the US market, they have been relatively resilient these past few days? What kind of trends do you see on something like the S&P now? A: Well I think one thing you�ve got to give the Fed credit for is they have done a massive rescue. We would�ve actually seen 1270 well and truly breached but for their actions. However, that is coming at a price. Bernanke started easing the US money supply back in August of last year. Now generally speaking, what happens is there is about a 9-month lag between the time that you pump money into the economy to the time that the CPI figures start to show up. Now that was about eight months ago. The first CPI that is going to be important is the one coming up next week. If we start to see inflation rising in the US, then I wouldn�t want to be in Bernanke�s shoes, simply because of the fact that he has eased as much as he can and now the inflation numbers are starting to come through. Now one very interesting point that was made in Singapore recently was a point made by one of the guests, he said that Richard Montgomery, which is number two on the board of the Fed has been making speeches, which ultimately become policy and his most recent speech was actually on inflation. So, I am actually looking for an inflationary figure above expectations coming up next week. If that happens, I think the US market will start its downward decline. If it does do that, I think we are in for at least a two-year bear market. Q: If that is the case, how do you expect money interest to flow into a market like India? Will it become the better market to track or an avoid? A: I don�t know the answer to that question because one of the things that I have noticed about bear markets and particularly bear markets around the world is that it is not a question of flowing. People just stop investing, people just take the money and store it away. It is not a question of saying, I am not investing in the US, let�s try India or let�s try China. They just don�t invest. So, I would need to see what would happen, when the bear markets begin to see whether or not the money flow that is going to exit the US for example, will flow into countries like India. I don�t know the answer to that one to be perfectly honest.