CNBC with Ray Barros on Cashflow today
CNBC Cashflow at 11 am HK/SIN time today
Also Jinsong (Jin) Du of Credit Suisse
Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
ELIF milestone 2009
Milestone of ELIF 2009
1. We have started teaching the kids at Nehemiah Christie’s orphanage in India.
2. We are running a social entrepreneurship forum online every
Saturday.
3. With our limited resources, we are able to support only one adoptive
project which is The Kid’s Hope coming from the resources of English
with Mary Moore.
Above all, we are able to organize ourselves peacefully and link up
people for social change purposes.
To sum it up, no matter how humble we had begun, we are able to
achieve some of our goals.
Happy New Year from Eagle-Lion International Foundation
Switzerland restricts use of GlaxoSmithKline H1N1 flu vaccine
CAVEAT:
GENEVA: Switzerland on Friday restricted the use of British drugs group GlaxoSmithKline’s H1N1 flu vaccine Pandemrix, excluding pregnant women, minors and people over the age of 60.
The regulatory authority Swissmedic said it had received data on the vaccine for adults, but not for pregnant women and very little data for children.
“For this reason, Swissmedic has not yet authorised the administration of Pandemrix to pregnant women, children under the age of 18 and adults over 60,” the regulator said in a statement.
However, it said one of two vaccines produced by Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis was safe to be used by both children and adults.
The vaccine Focetria was already approved by the European Medicines Agency before an authorisation application was filed in Switzerland.
Swissmedic therefore “based its decision largely on the EMEA authorisation,” said the regulator.
“In accordance with this, Focetria is recommended for use in adults and children over six months old,” it said.
As for usage by pregnant women, Swissmedic left it to doctors to weigh up the advantages and disadvantages of the vaccination.
The regulator added that it was still examining a second Novartis vaccine, Celtura.
Countries in the northern hemisphere are in the midst of rolling out vaccinations programmes, in preparation for the coming winter.
Nearly 5,000 people have died from H1N1 flu infections since the A(H1N1) virus was uncovered in April, according to data issued by the World Health Organisation last week.
- AFP/sc
VAT v GST
VAT is a European tool to replenish its coffers. It is gaining popularity with some Asian developing or developed countries to adopt VAT, although slowly building up from a small digit to two digits. Singapore is no exception, but with GST.
Quote
For resident corporations Singapore is not particularly tax-friendly- the corporation tax rate is 18%, and it is charged on all income derived from sources in Singapore, together with income from sources outside Singapore if received in Singapore.
In place of VAT and import duty, Singapore levies a 7% Goods & Services Tax from which exporting businesses are exempted. There are however a number of beneficial tax regimes available to the international investor…Unquote
The US is looking for a panacea and this is triggering outcries as from such articles as:
Into the VAT
Cross ref
http://idkitana.wordpress.com/2009/10/18/into-the-vat-as-a-panacea/
NOTICE: Changing URL for new blog Idkitana
THIS is to give notice that I have started a new blog Idkitana at
http://idkitana.wordpress.com/
and will be exporting my posts from this blog to the new blig Idkitana to better reflect me.
Forum & weekly videos for ES
http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/sp-2009-10-16-1250.html#respond
Fri 16 Oct 2009
S&P 2009-10-16
Posted by ray under Market Commentaries (edit this)
No Comments, post comment
Barrometrics Views: S&P 2009-10-16
A little pushed for time today; so, I am duplicating below the Forum comment found at
“A small change to how I have been writing this. I’ll be attaching the charts with the comments as I review them. This will provide you with the background to my thoughts. This leaves me more space to articulate my conclusions here.
The charts contain only one bearish element: we see from the Normalised Chart (Chart 1), that yesterday the S&P had normal volume and below normal range. This is normally bearish given the S&P had a higher high and higher low.
HOWEVER, the Combined Market Profile (Chart 2) chart shows that last night was part of development (correction over time and price). This being the case, the low range/volume ratio is not as bearish as it would have been if last night’s price was a directional move.
The new directional move up needs to begin soon (the Combined Profile suggests tonight would be optimum). A delay in the directional move would normally bring the sellers; and given the R0 as a middle structure (see chart 3), a break below 1019.5 (basis Dec) would suggest that the 13-w is now correcting. The first indication this is happening is acceptance below 1075. (see below).
SCENARIOS FOR OCT 16
Looking either for a open-gap or a strong move up (at least 8 point range, preferably 12 or more) by 11:00 am EST. This sets the scene for a strong directional move next week.
A strong move down, especially one that accepts below 1080 (basis Dec), places the 1075 to 1077 (basis Dec) under threat. Acceptance below these levels would be the first signs that the ES 18-d trend has topped out and we are beginning a 13-w correction (18-d downtrend).
Traditionally, the ‘equity options expiry’ trading session means a volatile session but that has been less true in recent history. I mention this so that you are forewarned.
OH, let me answer this now, because I am envitably asked: what is the Forum service? It’s a weekly video and daily commentary on the ES. The figure below shows how to register.
For charts etc
http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/sp-2009-10-16-1250.html#respond
2009-10-16-blog-ad-video.jpg
FIGURE FORUM REGISTRATION
2009-10-16-eod-twit-norm-vol.jpg
Chart 1 Normalised Volume
2009-10-16-eod-twit-mktpro.jpg
Chart 2 Combined Market Profile
2009-10-16-eod-twit-bs-2.jpg
Chart 3 Barros Swing R0
2009-10-16-eod-twit-bs.jpg
Chart 4 Momentum Swing Strength
2009-10-16-eod-twit-mdd.jpg
Chart 5 Market Delta EOD
2009-10-16-eod-twit-mds.jpg
Chart 6 Market Delta Split
The Rationalizer
As traders are aware, trading is probably one of the hardest professions in the world. Hence, trading emotionally is very common. Soon we may have a device to warn…………
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – If emotions are getting the better of you while trading online, The Rationalizer may be just the thing to tell you when it’s time to take a break.
The prototype unveiled by Netherlands-based Philips Electronics and ABN AMRO aims at sensing day traders’ stress levels so they can “time-out, wind down and re-consider their actions,” the companies said Tuesday.
Users wear a device called the EmoBracelet that senses stress and makes an accompanying lighted bowl, or EmoBowl, change color and flicker from yellow to red as emotions become more intense.
Researchers at Philips, Europe’s biggest consumer electronics maker, say home investors often do not act purely rationally.
“Their behavior is influenced by emotions, most notably fear and greed, which can compromise their ability to take an objective, factual stance,” they said.
Although not in production, Geert Christiaansen, chief of business development at Philips Design, says the prototype is part of a broader effort by Philips to help people cope with stress and the technology could be used in an array of other products.
(Reporting by Harro ten Wolde; Editing by David Holmes)
Social Development Network (S’pore)
Ageing population is a serious topic for developed nations and Singapore is no exception with declining birth rates and an ageing population with ‘baby boomers’ coming of age.
Hence, Singapore has been using the carrot and stick to increase its birth rate for two and a half decades.
New network for singles to meet
Posted: 16 October 2009 0918 hrs
SINGAPORE: The Social Development Unit-Social Development Service (SDU-SDS), the government matchmaker, has a new name. It is now called the “Social Development Network” or “SDN” in short.
Minister of State for Community Development, Youth and Sports, Mrs Yu-Foo Yee Shoon, unveiled the new name at the opening of the annual Partner Connection Trade Seminar on Friday.
She also announced plans to extend SDN’s reach to all singles, linking them to a wider network of partners for dating services, events and information. In collaboration with private dating agencies, SDN will also be providing a sampler dating package for singles.
SDU-SDS is the interim name for the merged Social Development Unit and Social Development Services. The SDU was formed in 1984 to promote marriages among graduate singles. The SDS was set up a year later to promote marriages among non-graduates.
The two organisations merged in January this year to reap economies of scale, enlarge their database for singles and provide more opportunities for singles to meet.
Over the last 25 years, 186,000 members of both organisations have tied the knot.
- CNA/ir
The Market is always Right!
Being Open to Market Information
To see the charts, please go to original post at:
http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/being-open-to-market-information-1245.html#comment-2513
Posted by ray under Psychology
BarroMetrics Views: Being Open to Market Information
One of the greatest dangers to trading success is myopia: having a fixed mindset of what the market is going to do.
Take a look at Figure 1.
2009-10-15-blog-sp-18d.jpg
FIGURE 1 GPBUSD 18-day Swing
We see that:
1. We have an 18-d Whole Point Count (9 consecutive days at below ‘B”). And,
2. We have a confirmed Head and Shoulders Change in Trend Pattern.
Conclusion: the market should head South, right?But because you pay attention, you see that October 12 was a small range day. Now that may be because it was Columbus Day, a holiday in the US, or it may be that the selling is drying up and we are about to head up.
You notice too that a conviction close above 1.5814 will trigger a 5-day Spring Change in Trend Pattern, and that would mean a line turn in the 18-day. This would mean a move to 1.6606 (on Oct 12. This price will change – see Nature of Trends) and because the 13-week trend is up, a conviction close above 1.6202 (see Figure 1) would mean an 18-day RePo (buy signal) with a minimum target to the 13-week Primary Sell Zone 1.7042 to 1.6878 (see Figure 2).
So a conviction close above 1.5814 means you need to close out your shorts and go long above 1.5814.
2009-10-15-blog-sp-13w.jpg
FIGURE 2 13-week GBPUSD
Or you could ignore the market information and believe that the GBPUSD would go down.
Figure 3 has the result.
2009-10-15-blog-sp-13w-2.jpg
FIGURE 3 13-week GBPUSD
The point I make is a simple one: keep focused on what the market is telling you and act accordingly.
“Dettes Odieuses.”
What are odious debts?
Simply put Odious Debts are:
Quote
If a despotic power incurs a debt not for the needs or in the interest of the State, but to strengthen its despotic regime, to repress the population that fights against it, etc., this debt is odious for the population of all the State.
Excerpt from The Doctrine of Odious Debts, Chapter 17 of the book Odious Debts: Loose Lending, Corruption, and the Third World’s Environmental Legacy by Patricia Adams
The legal doctrine of odious debts was given shape by Alexander Nahum Sack a quarter of a century after the settlement of the Spanish-American War. Sack, a former minister of Tsarist Russia and, after the Russian Revolution, a professor of law in Paris, authored two major works on the obligations of successor systems: The Effects of State Transformations on Their Public Debts and Other Financial Obligations and The Succession of the Public Debts of the State. With colonial territories becoming independent nation states and colonies changing hands, with monarchies being replaced by republics and military rule by civilian, with constantly changing borders throughout Europe, and with the ascendant new ideologies of socialism, communism and fascism overthrowing old orders, Sack’s debt theories dealt with the practical problems created by such transformations of state. Like many others, Sack believed that liability for public debts should remain intact, for these debts represent obligations of the state — the state being the territory, rather than a specific governmental structure. This he based not on some strict dictate of natural justice, but on the exigencies of international commerce. Without strong rules, he believed, chaos would reign in relations between nations, and international trade and finance would break down.
But Sack believed that debts not created in the interests of the state should not be bound to this general rule. Some debts, he said, were “dettes odieuses.”
If a despotic power incurs a debt not for the needs or in the interest of the State, but to strengthen its despotic regime, to repress the population that fights against it, etc., this debt is odious for the population of all the State.
This debt is not an obligation for the nation; it is a regime’s debt, a personal debt of the power that has incurred it, consequently it falls with the fall of this power.
The reason these “odious” debts cannot be considered to encumber the territory of the State, is that such debts do not fulfill one of the conditions that determine the legality of the debts of the State, that is: the debts of the State must be incurred and the funds from it employed for the needs and in the interests of the State.
“Odious” debts, incurred and used for ends which, to the knowledge of the creditors, are contrary to the interests of the nation, do not compromise the latter — in the case that the nation succeeds in getting rid of the government which incurs them — except to the extent that real advantages were obtained from these debts. The creditors have committed a hostile act with regard to the people; they can’t therefore expect that a nation freed from a despotic power assume the “odious” debts, which are personal debts of that power.
Even when a despotic power is replaced by another, no less despotic or any more responsive to the will of the people, the “odious” debts of the eliminated power are not any less their personal debts and are not obligations for the new power….
One could also include in this category of debts the loans incurred by members of the government or by persons or groups associated with the government to serve interests manifestly personal — interests that are unrelated to the interests of the State.
For creditors to expect any protection in their loans to foreign states, their loans must be utilized for the needs and interests of the state, otherwise the loans belonged to the power which contracted them, and were therefore, “dettes de régime.”
The doctrine of odious debts is open to abuse by self-serving interpretation. To avoid arbitrarily repudiated debts, Sack proposed that a new government be required to prove that the debt ill-served the public interest and that the creditors were aware of this. Following these proofs, the onus would be upon the creditors to show that the funds were utilized for the benefit of the territory. If the creditors could not do so, before an international tribunal, the debt would be unenforceable.
