Ana_Idkit

Key economic data for the week starting Aug 3, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.
Monday:
NEW VEHICLE SALES (Jul): 9.9M / 9.7M

10:00 AM ISM – MANUFACTURING (Jul): 46.5 / 44.8

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M (Jun): -0.6% / -0.9%
Tuesday:
8:30 AM PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y (Jun): 0.2% / 0.1%

PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y (core) (Jun): 1.7% / 1.8%

PERSONAL INCOME M/M (Jun): -1.0% / 1.4%

PERSONAL SPENDING M/M (Jun): 0.2% / 0.3%

10:00 AM PENDING HOME SALES M/M (Jun): 0.6% / 0.1%
Wednesday:
8:15 AM ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (Jul): -335K / -473K

10:00 AM FACTORY ORDERS M/M (Jun): 0.0% / 1.2%

ISM – NON-MANUFACTURING (Jul): 48.0 / 47.0
Thursday:
ICSC CHAIN STORE SALES Y/Y (Jul): n.a. / 0.7%

8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Jul-25 (H): n.a. / 6197K

INITIAL CLAIMS Aug-01: 595K / 584K
Friday:
8:30 AM NON-FARM PAYROLLS (Jul): -345K / -467K

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Jul): 9.6% / 9.5%

MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS (Jul): -100K / -136K

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M (Jul): 0.1% / 0.0%

3:00 PM CONSUMER CREDIT (Jun): -3.7B / -3.2B

Market updates for Wednesday:
Quote:
Specifically, the Fed identified New York, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco as showing ’signs of stabilization’. Chicago and St. Louis reported that economic declines were ‘moderating’. On the negative end of the spectrum, economic activity in Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, as well as in Dallas was described as either ’slow,’ ’subdued’, or ‘weak.’ Finally, in Minneapolis, indicators showed that the slide in economic activity had actually worsened.

In other economic news released today, US factory orders for big-ticket durable goods were off strongly in June (down 2.5%; economists had been expecting a 0.6% decline). This was the largest decline seen in five months and appears to have been a reflection of the fallout from the troubles in the auto industry. It is however also seen as a result of slackening demand for commercial jets (in fact, orders for commercial aircraft tumbled 38.5%).

Despite the current high degree of investor enthusiasm, there are skeptics warning that ‘under the hood’, so to speak, fundamental economic weakness is (re)appearing, creating weak spots that are not necessarily apparent to those watching only the major stock indexes. Examples include banks cutting back on their loan books in the second quarter, presently contracting bank credit, and weakness in several transportation indexes (including the Baltic Dry Index, and in an index maintained by the American Trucking Association). Furthermore, consumer confidence surveys have not truly confirmed the market’s strong rally.

Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.
Thursday:
8:30 CONTINUING CLAIMS Jul-18: n.a. / 6225K INITIAL CLAIMS Jul-25 (H) 588K / 554K

Friday:
8:30 AM GDP (annualized) (Q2 A): -1.5% / -5.5%

GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q2): 1.0% / 2.8%

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (Q2): 0.3% / 0.3%

9:45 AM CHICAGO PMI (Jul): 42.0 / 39.9

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Key economic data for the week starting May 11th, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
	8:30 AM Trade Balance Mar -$29.2B -$26.0B 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Apr -$63.0B $159.3B

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM Retail Sales Apr -0.1% -1.2% 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.0% -1.0% 10:00 AM Business Inventories Mar -1.1% -1.3% 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/08 NA +605K 10:35 AM Crude Inventories 05/08 NA NA

Thursday:
	8:30 AM Core PPI Apr 0.1% 0.0% 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/09 NA 601K 8:30 AM PPI Apr 0.1% -1.2%

Friday:
	8:30 AM Core CPI Apr 0.1% 0.2% 8:30 AM CPI Apr 0.0% -0.1% 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing May -15.00 -14.65 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows NA $22.0B 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Apr 68.9% 69.3% 9:15 AM Industrial Production Apr -0.6% -1.5% 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel May 65.0 65.1

Key economic data for the week starting May 4th, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
	10:00 AM ISM Services Apr 42.0 40.8

Wednesday:
	8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Apr -643K -742K 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/01 NA +4053K

Thursday:
	8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/02 NA NA 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q1 0.9% -0.4%

Friday:
	8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Apr -620K -663K 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Apr 8.9% 8.5% 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Mar -1.0% -1.5%

Key economic data for the week starting April 27th, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
	9:00 AM Consumer Confidence Apr – 28.8 26.0 - 10:00 AM S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index Feb – -18.8% -18.97%

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q1 – -4.9% -6.3% - 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q1 – 1.7% 0.5% - 10:35 AM Crude Inventories 04/24 – NA +3857K - 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision – - NA 0.00% -0.25% -

Thursday:
	8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/25 – NA 640K - 8:30 AM Personal Income Mar – -0.2% -0.2% - 8:30 AM Personal Spending Mar – -0.1% 0.2% - 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q1 – 0.5% 0.5% - 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Apr – 34.0 31.4 -

Friday:
	9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev Apr – 61.5 61.9 - 10:00 AM Factory Orders Mar – -0.7% 1.8% - 10:00 AM ISM Index Apr – 38.0 36.3 –

Key economic data for the week starting April 6th, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
	2:00 PM Consumer Credit Feb -$1.5B $1.8B

Wednesday:
	10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Feb -0.6% -0.7% 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 04/03 NA +2840K

Thursday:
	8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA 0.1% 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA -0.6% 8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/04 NA NA 8:30 AM Trade Balance Feb -$36.5B -$36.0B

Key economic data for the week starting Mar 30th, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
	09:00 Consumer Confidence Mar 27.0 25.0 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jan -18.5% -18.55% 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar 34.7 34.2

Wednesday:
	08:15 ADP Employment Change Mar -648K -697K 10:00 Construction Spending Feb -1.6% -3.3% 10:00 ISM Index Mar 36.0 35.8 10:00 Pending Home Sales Feb -2.0% -7.7% 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/27 NA +3300K 14:00 Auto Sales Mar NA 2.9M 14:00 Truck Sales Mar NA 3.5M

Thursday:
	08:30 Initial Claims 03/28 653K NA 10:00 Factory Orders Feb -0.3% -1.9%

Friday:
	08:30 Average Workweek Mar 33.3 33.3 08:30 Hourly Earnings Mar 0.2% 0.2% 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Mar -656K -651K 08:30 Unemployment Rate Mar 8.5% 8.1% 10:00 ISM Services Mar 42.0 41.6

Key economic data for the week starting Mar 23 , 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Feb 4.45M 4.49M

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders Feb – -2.0% -5.2% - 8:30 AM Durables, Ex-Transportation Feb – -2.0% -2.5% - 10:00 AM New Home Sales Feb – 300K 309K - 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/20 – NA +1942K

Thursday:
	8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/21 – 650K NA - 8:30 AM Q4 GDP – Final Q4 – -6.6% -6.2% - 8:30 AM GDP Price Index Q4 – 0.5% 0.5% -

Friday:
	8:30 AM Personal Income Feb – -0.1% 0.4% - 8:30 AM Personal Spending Feb – 0.3% 0.6% - 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev Mar – 56.0 NA -

Key economic data for the week starting Mar 16th, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	08:30 Empire Manufacturing Mar -32.0 -34.65 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jan NA $34.8B 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 71.1% 72.0% 09:15 Industrial Production Feb -1.2% -1.8%

Tuesday:
	08:30 Building Permits Feb 510K 531K 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.1% 0.4% 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 453K 466K 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.8%

Wednesday:
	08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.1% 0.2% 08:30 CPI Feb 0.3% 0.3% 08:30 Current Account Balance Q4 -$136.7B NA 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/13 NA +749K 14:15 FOMC Rate Decision NA 0.00% -0.25%

Thursday:
	08:30 Initial Claims 03/14 NA 654K 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb -0.6% 0.4% 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar -40.0 -41.3