Ana_Idkit

Ana Wang Investment Weblog

Archive for October, 2009

VAT v GST

VAT is a European tool to replenish its coffers. It is gaining popularity with some Asian developing or developed countries to adopt VAT, although slowly building up from a small digit to two digits. Singapore is no exception, but with GST.

Quote

For resident corporations Singapore is not particularly tax-friendly- the corporation tax rate is 18%, and it is charged on all income derived from sources in Singapore, together with income from sources outside Singapore if received in Singapore.

In place of VAT and import duty, Singapore levies a 7% Goods & Services Tax from which exporting businesses are exempted. There are however a number of beneficial tax regimes available to the international investor…Unquote
The US is looking for a panacea and this is triggering outcries as from such articles as:
Into the VAT

Cross ref
http://idkitana.wordpress.com/2009/10/18/into-the-vat-as-a-panacea/

NOTICE: Changing URL for new blog Idkitana

THIS is to give notice that I have started a new blog Idkitana at

http://idkitana.wordpress.com/

and will be exporting my posts from this blog to the new blig Idkitana to better reflect me.

Forum & weekly videos for ES

Cross ref

http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/sp-2009-10-16-1250.html#respond

Fri 16 Oct 2009

S&P 2009-10-16

Posted by ray under Market Commentaries (edit this)

No Comments, post comment

Barrometrics Views: S&P 2009-10-16

A little pushed for time today; so, I am duplicating below the Forum comment found at

“A small change to how I have been writing this. I’ll be attaching the charts with the comments as I review them. This will provide you with the background to my thoughts. This leaves me more space to articulate my conclusions here.

The charts contain only one bearish element: we see from the Normalised Chart (Chart 1), that yesterday the S&P had normal volume and below normal range. This is normally bearish given the S&P had a higher high and higher low.

HOWEVER, the Combined Market Profile (Chart 2) chart shows that last night was part of development (correction over time and price). This being the case, the low range/volume ratio is not as bearish as it would have been if last night’s price was a directional move.

The new directional move up needs to begin soon (the Combined Profile suggests tonight would be optimum). A delay in the directional move would normally bring the sellers; and given the R0 as a middle structure (see chart 3), a break below 1019.5 (basis Dec) would suggest that the 13-w is now correcting. The first indication this is happening is acceptance below 1075. (see below).

SCENARIOS FOR OCT 16

Looking either for a open-gap or a strong move up (at least 8 point range, preferably 12 or more) by 11:00 am EST. This sets the scene for a strong directional move next week.

A strong move down, especially one that accepts below 1080 (basis Dec), places the 1075 to 1077 (basis Dec) under threat. Acceptance below these levels would be the first signs that the ES 18-d trend has topped out and we are beginning a 13-w correction (18-d downtrend).

Traditionally, the ‘equity options expiry’ trading session means a volatile session but that has been less true in recent history. I mention this so that you are forewarned.

OH, let me answer this now, because I am envitably asked: what is the Forum service? It’s a weekly video and daily commentary on the ES. The figure below shows how to register.

For charts etc

Go to original post

http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/sp-2009-10-16-1250.html#respond

2009-10-16-blog-ad-video.jpg

FIGURE FORUM REGISTRATION

2009-10-16-eod-twit-norm-vol.jpg

Chart 1 Normalised Volume

2009-10-16-eod-twit-mktpro.jpg

Chart 2 Combined Market Profile

2009-10-16-eod-twit-bs-2.jpg

Chart 3 Barros Swing R0

2009-10-16-eod-twit-bs.jpg

Chart 4 Momentum Swing Strength

2009-10-16-eod-twit-mdd.jpg

Chart 5 Market Delta EOD

2009-10-16-eod-twit-mds.jpg

Chart 6 Market Delta Split

The Rationalizer


As traders are aware, trading is probably one of the hardest professions in the world. Hence, trading emotionally is very common. Soon we may have a device to warn…………

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – If emotions are getting the better of you while trading online, The Rationalizer may be just the thing to tell you when it’s time to take a break.

The prototype unveiled by Netherlands-based Philips Electronics and ABN AMRO aims at sensing day traders’ stress levels so they can “time-out, wind down and re-consider their actions,” the companies said Tuesday.

Users wear a device called the EmoBracelet that senses stress and makes an accompanying lighted bowl, or EmoBowl, change color and flicker from yellow to red as emotions become more intense.

Researchers at Philips, Europe’s biggest consumer electronics maker, say home investors often do not act purely rationally.

“Their behavior is influenced by emotions, most notably fear and greed, which can compromise their ability to take an objective, factual stance,” they said.

Although not in production, Geert Christiaansen, chief of business development at Philips Design, says the prototype is part of a broader effort by Philips to help people cope with stress and the technology could be used in an array of other products.

(Reporting by Harro ten Wolde; Editing by David Holmes)

Social Development Network (S’pore)

Ageing population is a serious topic for developed nations and Singapore is no exception with declining birth rates and an ageing population with ‘baby boomers’ coming of age.

Hence, Singapore has been using the carrot and stick to increase its birth rate for two and a half decades.

New network for singles to meet
Posted: 16 October 2009 0918 hrs

SINGAPORE: The Social Development Unit-Social Development Service (SDU-SDS), the government matchmaker, has a new name. It is now called the “Social Development Network” or “SDN” in short.

Minister of State for Community Development, Youth and Sports, Mrs Yu-Foo Yee Shoon, unveiled the new name at the opening of the annual Partner Connection Trade Seminar on Friday.

She also announced plans to extend SDN’s reach to all singles, linking them to a wider network of partners for dating services, events and information. In collaboration with private dating agencies, SDN will also be providing a sampler dating package for singles.

SDU-SDS is the interim name for the merged Social Development Unit and Social Development Services. The SDU was formed in 1984 to promote marriages among graduate singles. The SDS was set up a year later to promote marriages among non-graduates.

The two organisations merged in January this year to reap economies of scale, enlarge their database for singles and provide more opportunities for singles to meet.

Over the last 25 years, 186,000 members of both organisations have tied the knot.

- CNA/ir

The Market is always Right!

Being Open to Market Information

To see the charts, please go to original post at:

Cross ref

http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/being-open-to-market-information-1245.html#comment-2513

Posted by ray under Psychology

BarroMetrics Views: Being Open to Market Information

One of the greatest dangers to trading success is myopia: having a fixed mindset of what the market is going to do.

Take a look at Figure 1.

2009-10-15-blog-sp-18d.jpg

FIGURE 1 GPBUSD 18-day Swing

We see that:

1. We have an 18-d Whole Point Count (9 consecutive days at below ‘B”). And,
2. We have a confirmed Head and Shoulders Change in Trend Pattern.

Conclusion: the market should head South, right?But because you pay attention, you see that October 12 was a small range day. Now that may be because it was Columbus Day, a holiday in the US, or it may be that the selling is drying up and we are about to head up.

You notice too that a conviction close above 1.5814 will trigger a 5-day Spring Change in Trend Pattern, and that would mean a line turn in the 18-day. This would mean a move to 1.6606 (on Oct 12. This price will change – see Nature of Trends) and because the 13-week trend is up, a conviction close above 1.6202 (see Figure 1) would mean an 18-day RePo (buy signal) with a minimum target to the 13-week Primary Sell Zone 1.7042 to 1.6878 (see Figure 2).

So a conviction close above 1.5814 means you need to close out your shorts and go long above 1.5814.

2009-10-15-blog-sp-13w.jpg

FIGURE 2 13-week GBPUSD

Or you could ignore the market information and believe that the GBPUSD would go down.

Figure 3 has the result.

2009-10-15-blog-sp-13w-2.jpg

FIGURE 3 13-week GBPUSD

The point I make is a simple one: keep focused on what the market is telling you and act accordingly.

“Dettes Odieuses.”

What are odious debts?

Simply put Odious Debts are:
Quote
If a despotic power incurs a debt not for the needs or in the interest of the State, but to strengthen its despotic regime, to repress the population that fights against it, etc., this debt is odious for the population of all the State.


Excerpt from The Doctrine of Odious Debts, Chapter 17 of the book Odious Debts: Loose Lending, Corruption, and the Third World’s Environmental Legacy by Patricia Adams

The legal doctrine of odious debts was given shape by Alexander Nahum Sack a quarter of a century after the settlement of the Spanish-American War. Sack, a former minister of Tsarist Russia and, after the Russian Revolution, a professor of law in Paris, authored two major works on the obligations of successor systems: The Effects of State Transformations on Their Public Debts and Other Financial Obligations and The Succession of the Public Debts of the State. With colonial territories becoming independent nation states and colonies changing hands, with monarchies being replaced by republics and military rule by civilian, with constantly changing borders throughout Europe, and with the ascendant new ideologies of socialism, communism and fascism overthrowing old orders, Sack’s debt theories dealt with the practical problems created by such transformations of state. Like many others, Sack believed that liability for public debts should remain intact, for these debts represent obligations of the state — the state being the territory, rather than a specific governmental structure. This he based not on some strict dictate of natural justice, but on the exigencies of international commerce. Without strong rules, he believed, chaos would reign in relations between nations, and international trade and finance would break down.

But Sack believed that debts not created in the interests of the state should not be bound to this general rule. Some debts, he said, were “dettes odieuses.”

If a despotic power incurs a debt not for the needs or in the interest of the State, but to strengthen its despotic regime, to repress the population that fights against it, etc., this debt is odious for the population of all the State.

This debt is not an obligation for the nation; it is a regime’s debt, a personal debt of the power that has incurred it, consequently it falls with the fall of this power.

The reason these “odious” debts cannot be considered to encumber the territory of the State, is that such debts do not fulfill one of the conditions that determine the legality of the debts of the State, that is: the debts of the State must be incurred and the funds from it employed for the needs and in the interests of the State.

“Odious” debts, incurred and used for ends which, to the knowledge of the creditors, are contrary to the interests of the nation, do not compromise the latter — in the case that the nation succeeds in getting rid of the government which incurs them — except to the extent that real advantages were obtained from these debts. The creditors have committed a hostile act with regard to the people; they can’t therefore expect that a nation freed from a despotic power assume the “odious” debts, which are personal debts of that power.

Even when a despotic power is replaced by another, no less despotic or any more responsive to the will of the people, the “odious” debts of the eliminated power are not any less their personal debts and are not obligations for the new power….

One could also include in this category of debts the loans incurred by members of the government or by persons or groups associated with the government to serve interests manifestly personal — interests that are unrelated to the interests of the State.

For creditors to expect any protection in their loans to foreign states, their loans must be utilized for the needs and interests of the state, otherwise the loans belonged to the power which contracted them, and were therefore, “dettes de régime.”

The doctrine of odious debts is open to abuse by self-serving interpretation. To avoid arbitrarily repudiated debts, Sack proposed that a new government be required to prove that the debt ill-served the public interest and that the creditors were aware of this. Following these proofs, the onus would be upon the creditors to show that the funds were utilized for the benefit of the territory. If the creditors could not do so, before an international tribunal, the debt would be unenforceable.

Bottoms-up v Tops-down

Tips from Trader Psyches:

Think of “bottoms-up emotion” as those that are basic to survival and relatively “pure”. In our opinion, most trading emotions fit into this category because winning/losing and making money are so closely related to our egos and our fears.

Top down emotions, in contrast, seem to have a better result with re-framing. This makes sense because these emotions are considered to be fueled by interpretation of events, words and memories. In other words, if someone mistreats you, you can interpret it as they are mean, busy, pre-occupied or just trying to get on the subway! Conversely, if you lose money, you made the decisions, you were wrong and now you have less of a (the?) critical resource of cash.

Conundrum: Why Traders Fail?

By Ray Barros

Cross ref:http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/why-traders-fail-1244.html#respond

BarroMetrics Views: Why Traders Fail

I make no secret that one of my passions is to leave a legacy. Few have heard of Bernard Baruch – in my view, one of the best traders of any era; many more have heard of W D Gann – not because he was a better trader but because Gann attempted to pass his ideas on.

Over the years, I finally hit on a format that seemed to offer the best chance to fulfill a dream. It was a two-fold program:

1. An inexpensive course that taught the foundations of success (Habits of Success [HOS]) and
2. A one-on-one mentor course.

The first provided the means which when followed would lead to success, and the other one attempted by weekly meetings and personal tuition to ensure the student followed the course. Both have drawbacks. The first suffers the same drawback facing all seminars and webinars: the students are not taught to apply the material in any structured way. The second took too long – 2 to 3 years.

The end result is the usual trader education model, like that of the Army Air Corp in 1934 where flyers burnt and crashed, just as traders burn and crash.

I believe that my application of Coyle’s model (See A Quiet Revolution in Learning and The Talent Code Revisited) will play same role for traders as the Link Simulator did for novice flyers.

The current results of the program show that most of those who had taken my Habits of Success webinar in 2009 , and gone out and traded, they would have lost money. Either because they tried to trade without learning the material or because they misunderstood what I was saying.

Let me give you an example of what I mean.

The trading strategy taught at HOS is a simple one. It has one essential element and two main ones. It also has what I call warnings of a possible change in trend. The exercise for this week has called for the students to identify the trend – that’s all, nothing else.

These are the 5 HOS students.

Of the 5:

1. One got it almost 100% correct – a small error on the warnings.
2. Three were totally lost. They did not know where to start – even though I thought I had laid out a clear checklist at the webinar.
3. One introduced two or three indicators of his own. Only problem is, he failed to give me the answer to my question: ‘what is the trend?”.

Now let me stress that the 5 are among the most passionate students I have encountered. The commitment is there but the learning was not. Now think about this – how true is it of you? If you are struggling, the probability is you have not learnt to succeed.

Global Law Enforcers – PM Lee

PM urges global law enforcers to work together

PM Lee

By CHUANG PECK MING

PRIME Minister Lee Hsien Loong yesterday urged law enforcement agencies worldwide to work together as crimes go trans-national and become more sophisticated.

Mr Lee: ‘Crime, too, has become global… Criminals can move around more easily and run trans-national operations. They often direct crime from offshore bases.’

‘Crime, too, has become global,’ Mr Lee said at the opening of an Interpol-United Nations Ministerial meeting here. ‘Criminals can move around more easily and run trans-national operations. They often direct crime from offshore bases.’

Interpol brings together police from 187 member countries and facilitates international cooperation – even where there are no diplomatic ties between particular states.

Noting that criminals have also gone high-tech, Mr Lee said that they are employing modern communications to freely exchange information, coordinate operations and even share ‘best crime practices’.

‘Jihadist terrorism, drug trafficking, human trafficking and cyber crime are all global in scale and trans-national in nature,’ he said. ‘The same modern technologies and techniques that improve our lives are as easily applied to more sinister ends.’

So to deal with crooks and terrorists, police must become smarter and better equipped, he said. ‘Police officers must learn the latest technologies, understand how they might be abused by felons, as well as how they could be deployed to enhance policing work. Police services must raise the capabilities of their officers, help them master the new tools and always stay one step ahead of criminals.’

Countries must cooperate more closely by sharing intelligence, watching for fugitives and conducting joint enforcement actions, Mr Lee said. ‘Only by working together can we effectively tackle trans-national crime and terrorism.’

Interpol’s constitution prohibits intervention or activity of a political, military, religious or racial character, which encourages member countries to pool information on fugitives, terrorists, stolen goods and stolen and lost travel documents.

‘Such cooperation has enabled countries to extend the long arm of the law beyond traditional borders to take collective action against a common enemy,’ Mr Lee said.

Singapore has gained much from international police cooperation, he said. Through Interpol, criminals and terrorists have been returned to Singapore to face justice.

Interpol-coordinated operations have also scored big successes, including two involving Singapore, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam that were aimed at illegal soccer gambling controlled by organised crime gangs. One of these two joint operations alone led to the arrest of over 1,300 people across various countries and disrupted betting records of almost US$1.5 billion.

Mr Lee also favours deploying civilian police forces to help with peacekeeping. ‘While military forces are indispensable for establishing initial security, civilian police forces are more suited for law and order tasks and for maintaining security,’ he said.