Ana_Idkit

Cross ref
http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/useful-sites-1219.html#comments

Useful Sites

Posted by ray under Miscellaneous

BarroMetrics Views: Useful Sites

It’s that time again – when I run through the sites I have found useful. Some of these sites are free, others are commercial and some are a mixture of both. All provide great value to the trader.

Quantitative Analysis

Here Rob Hanna’s site stands out: Quantifiable Edges

Jason Goepfert also has a good site for quant analysis: Sentiment Trader. I find however that his sentiment information is more useful.

Psychology

Dr. Brett Steenbarger has a fabulous blog site: traderfeed. Brett is prodiguous in his output. I marvel at the hours he puts in. The added bonus is that all the information is free. His book: The Daily Coach belongs on every trader’s bookshelf.

Denise Shull is the other trading psyche coach of whom I am a fan. Her blogs are so-so (TraderPysche). But her course Accessing Psychological Capital is first class and of great value. I understand from Denise she’ll have a book out in 2010: “The Anti-dote to the Black Swan”.

Money Management

Sad to say I have yet to find a course that I can recommend in this category.

Sentiment Services

There are three good services:

1. Sentiment Trader: Stocks only
2. Whisper Numbers: Stocks only
3. Bullish Review: Futures

Trading Courses

Alexander Tzavaras has an excellent value for money course – very comprehensive in terms of a trading strategy. (Trade With Pride)

New Books

Apart from Daily Trading Coach, there has been a dearth of interesting new trading books. Much that I have read is a rehash of old ideas in a new format.

This is not the case in other genres. By far, the greatest impact on trading education will be Daniel Coyle’s Book: The Talent Code

An earlier book in the same category is: Talent is Overrated.

Finally the Three Laws of Performance brings to the written realm, Landmark Forum’s course. What I call ‘default future’ is well explained in the book. However, I do have doubts on whether the book’s solution to our default future is as simple as suggested.

MOM, SMU to set up Human Capital Leadership Institute
By S Ramesh, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 29 September 2009 1032 hrs

Lee Hsien Loong

MOM, SMU to set up Human Capital Leadership Institute

SINGAPORE: The Economic Development Board (EDB) is spearheading a new outfit called Singapore Leadership Initiative for building Networks and Knowledge (LINK). This is part of an initiative to ramp up efforts to make Singapore a “Home for Talent”.

Speaking at the opening of the Singapore Human Capital Summit on Tuesday, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Singapore has been building up its infrastructure for research and training by creating programmes of value for companies and their talent.

“For example, through its Global Schoolhouse initiative, the Economic Development Board has attracted premier international universities like Insead, University of Chicago Booth Graduate School of Business and New York University’s Tisch School of the Arts to set up here.

“To be a Home for Talent, we must provide exciting job opportunities and a high quality of life. We must also be at the forefront of human capital development, so that people see this as a place to stretch and achieve their potential.

“And we should develop human capital not just for Singapore, but for the whole of Asia. After all, Singapore is at the crossroads of Asia. If we can help Asian economies to gain talent and grow, we ourselves will in turn grow with them,” he said.

The new Singapore LINK will bring together business schools, universities and firms offering professional services in a single campus devoted to leadership and talent development.

This clustering will strengthen the links between research, management and training, encouraging corporations and academia to work together and adopt new best practices.

“This is a very powerful concept to synergise the best ideas in research, teaching and executive education, as well as in the application of new ideas in human capital development and leadership development,” said Leo Yip, chairman of EDB.

For example, Towers Perrin will soon launch a study of cross-cultural leadership in Asia, while Watson Wyatt intends to develop human capital risk management tools for Asian companies. Both projects are expected to involve academic researchers.

Moreover, within Singapore LINK at one-north, which is in the Buona Vista area in the western part of Singapore, the Manpower Ministry and the Singapore Management University will set up a Human Capital Leadership Institute.

The new establishment aims to be the premier institution for raising strategic human capital capabilities in Asia. It will conduct pan-Asian research on important human resource challenges, and offer training and development programmes on leadership and management to global participants.

One such course will be the Singapore Business Leaders’ Programme, catering to senior executives who are expecting to take on regional or global responsibilities.

The programme will provide leadership development, networking opportunities, as well as exposure to leading human resource and talent management practices in Asia.

Mr Lee noted that the future of Asian economies will depend on nations making full use of talent, which is why human capital and leadership development are critical.

- CNA/so

NO, I am not referring to a duel but to fighting the market, which is always right, by the way!

Here is more
by Jim Wyckoff

I was busy Friday morning writing my “Glance at the Markets” feature for financials, when I got an email from a trader. He said he was bullish coffee and wanted to go long. All morning long, it seemed, trader emails had been popping up on my computer screen–and many were advocating playing the long side of markets these traders perceived as being at a price low enough to be a “bargain buy.” Among my emails Friday morning, another trader was bullish gold, and still another was bullish wheat; another bullish cocoa.

That’s when I decided to put away the “Glance” feature and instead write about the perils of “fighting the tape” (trend) in markets. Think about it: Do traders really want to fight the market? Remember, only the markets are ALWAYS right. No one else.

Traders many times think like consumer shoppers think: “I need to buy at bargain-basement prices to get the very best deal.” (My wonderful wife many times comes home with a bag full of clothes, saying, “Honey, I just couldn’t pass up these bargains; I just had to buy them.”) Unfortunately, when trading futures markets (or stocks), thinking like a consumer shopper is unwise and unprofitable. I think one of the major mistakes most traders make is trying to “bargain hunt” and go long a market (or a stock) that he or she perceives as being “low-priced.”

The same is true for trying to sell (go short) a market at perceived high prices. Crude oil is a good example here. All this year, the trading landscape has been littered with the carcasses of traders trying to pick a top in crude oil. These top-pickers have so far been brutalized by the market–which is always right.

Don’t fight the tape. If the general market trend is one way, do not trade against it. In my “Top 10″ trading rules list, rule No.1 is: Are the daily, weekly and monthly charts all in agreement on trend? If I’m thinking about position-trading a market and the aforementioned charts are not in agreement on trend, I’ll likely pass on the trade. And I certainly won’t initiate a position trade that is against the overall trends shown on the charts.

Some traders may prudently ask, “What about “contrary opinion” trading and the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports showing commercials buying in downtrends? Well, I cannot argue that contrary thinking and trading is valid and is employed successfully by some traders. I have used contrary thinking and trading, myself. But I think that type of trading method is an exception and not the rule, regarding becoming a successful trader. It’s a bit like a winning football team with a very good running attack. Their running game makes them a winning team, but they occasionally sprinkle in a pass here and there to keep the defense honest. Also, commercial traders (the big boys in the business) most times seem to be on the right side of the market. However, we as individual traders do not have the resources (research staff, worldwide connections, very deep pockets, etc.) that the commercials enjoy.

Also, when good market trends get underway, even though trend traders don’t “catch the bottom” (or the top), there is usually plenty of distance for the market to run to allow good profits to accrue.

So, if there are traders out there in cyberspace that really do want to fight the tape (the market), drop me an email before you take on this behemoth. In a quick sentence or two, I’ll give you my honest opinion. I really do enjoy hearing from all my readers worldwide.
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Posted by ray under Miscellaneous

Cross ref http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/
28 Sep 09

In ‘A Quiet Revolution in Learning Theory‘, I introduced Myelin and Daniel Coyle’s learning model, ‘Deep Practice’.

In this blog, I’ll spell out the ramification of these ideas.

Currently, a trader’s education comprises of:

* One to four day’s seminars with perhaps a period of support after the seminar.
* Three to Six week webinars with a period of hand holding after the webinar.

The hand holding takes the form of answering questions and analysis by the instructor. The student rarely sends in his input.

* Mentoring courses lasting from three months to two years. For obvious reason, these tend to be at the top of the price range.

The education is akin to the air pilot training of the 1930s. Coyle recounts that the most able of the army’s pilots were dying in crashes. The education pilots received consisted of:

1. The instructor taking up a prospective student in a plane. The pilot would then execute a series of loops and rolls. If the student did not get sick, he was admitted to air school.
2. He then received some blackboard instruction and ground school. This was followed by
3. Solo flying.

(Do you see the similarities with the trading education received since time immemorial? We go to seminar; we open an account; we start trading. Is it any wonder so many fail?)

The turning point for air safety came when Edward Link built a flight simulator. Its use brought about the fantastic drop in fatalities and is responsible for today’s great air safety record The Coyle model is the trader’s Link Simulator.

If we adopt the Coyle model, trader education will split into two parts:

1. The theory aspect and
2. A ’simulator’ portion where the student learns to apply the theory.

Used effectively, the Coyle model will prepare the newbie trader for trading in much the same way as the simulator provided the training for novice pilots. My gut feel is we’ll see similar success rates.

Cross ref http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/comparing-analysis-approaches-1211.html

Comparing Analysis Approaches

Posted by ray under Written Plan

BarroMetrics Views: Comparing Analysis Approaches

The current GBPUSD provides a clear illustration of the difference between traditional technical analysis and my approach.

Traditional technical analysis tends to be a closed system. For example: if we see a H&S topping pattern with a breach of the neckline, we assume a change in trend from up to down. My understanding from the books I have read is that once the pattern appears, I lock in on the one scenario unless the stop is elected. This is the Richard Schabacker approach that was adopted by Edwards and Mcgee.

The approach I take is modeled on that of Richard Wyckoff and Peter J Steidlmayer (originator of Market Profile): rather than focusing only the patterns, they seek to understand the principles behind them and seek to keep an open mind on the alternative scenarios.

In the trad approach, the GBPUSD has signaled a clear change in trend in the 18-d swing (monthly trend). Figure 1 shows the H&S topping pattern with the breach of the neckline. The projected target is 1.5140

On the other hand, if you are using the material in Nature of Trends, the change in trend at this stage still needs to be proven.

Figure 2 shows the Barros Swing approach:

1. There was an Upthrust Change in Trend Pattern with the possibility of adding to your shorts (assuming the core profit contract was taken at the Primary Sell Zone using the Rule of 3 – Nature of Trends).
2. I discard the ‘neckline’, focusing instead on the price at low 1.5980 marked ‘B’. For me, at this stage, the change in trend is still in flux. There are two possibilities:

* A Whole Point Count will form under 1.59809 confirming the change from up to down in the 18-day. Or
* We will see acceptance above 1.61184 in the form of a bullish conviction bar (open no lower than bottom third of range, close no lower than top third of range and at least 50% of body above 1.61184). This would suggest a move to at least the Primary Sell Zone and probably the resumption of the 18-day uptrend: note that although the 13-week does not have an uptrend structure (higher swing highs and higher swing lows), the 12-month (yearly trend) has triggered a buy signal to the Primary Sell Zone 2.1160 to 2.0220. A 12-month move to 2.1160 must mean the 13-week is in an uptrend. (See Figure 3)

The filters I use are not only price filters (Maximum Extension); I use a momentum filter (Line Change Count – see Nature of Trends) and the Whole Point Count (WPC, a time filter). The WPC for the 18-day is 9 consecutive days where the high is at or below 1.5980. Of the three, the WPC, the time filter, I rate as the most reliable and most important.

Overall I have found that by using confirming filters and keeping my mind to alternative scenarios provides me a more profitable bottom line.

Key economic data for the week starting September 28, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.
Monday:
8:30 AM CHICAGO FED NAT.ACTIVITY INDEX (Aug): n.a. / -0.7%
Tuesday:
9:00 AM S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX (Jul): n.a. / 141.9

S&P CASE SHILLER Y/Y (Jul): -14.3% / -15.4%

10:00 AM CONF.BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Sep): 57.0 / 54.1
Wednesday:
8:15 AM ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (Aug): -190K / -298K

8:30 AM GDP (annualized) (Q2 F): -1.2% / -1.0%

GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q2): 0.0% / 0.0%

9:45 AM CHICAGO PMI (Sep): 52.0 / 50.0
Thursday:
NEW VEHICLE SALES (Sep): 10.0M / 14.1M

8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Sep-19: 6163K / 6138K

INITIAL CLAIMS Sep-26: 531K / 530K

PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y (Aug): -0.6% / -0.8%

PCE DEFLATOR Y/Y (core) (Aug): 1.3% / 1.4%

PERSONAL INCOME M/M (Aug): 0.1% / 0.0%

PERSONAL SPENDING M/M (Aug): 1.1% / 0.2%

10:00 AM ISM – MANUFACTURING (Sep): 54.0 / 52.9

PENDING HOME SALES M/M (Aug): 0.9% / 3.2%

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M (Aug): -0.3% / -0.2%
Friday:
8:30 AM NON-FARM PAYROLLS (Sep): -190K / -216K

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Sep): 9.8% / 9.7%

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M (Sep): 0.2% / 0.3%

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS (Sep): 33.1 / 33.1

MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS (Sep): -55K / -63K

10:00 AM FACTORY ORDERS M/M (Aug): 1.0% / 1.3%

Published September 25, 2009
BLOOMBERG

Onslaught on Swiss secrecy may ‘criminalise’ elites

European leaders should impose a withholding tax instead: banker

(GENEVA) European leaders should give up the attack on Swiss banking secrecy and accept a withholding tax on foreigners to avoid criminalising wealthy taxpayers, said Konrad Hummler, managing partner of Wegelin & Co, Switzerland’s oldest private bank.

‘If there is really a desire to criminalise part of the elite in European countries, then it would be a bigger problem for these countries than for Switzerland,’ Mr Hummler said yesterday.

The ‘majority of European clients were not criminals but just diversifying away from their home country’, he said.

Swiss banks last week proposed the withholding tax in a bid to fend off the assault on secrecy by the US, Germany and France.

The Swiss Bankers Association has forwarded the proposal, under which client identities would be known only to the banks, to the government for consideration.

A withholding tax may prevent probes of the kind that netted former Deutsche Post chief executive Klaus Zumwinkel, who confessed in January to using a Liechtenstein account to avoid taxes, Mr Hummler said. That came after the German government paid a former employee of LGT Group, the bank owned by Liechtenstein’s ruling family, for bank records.

‘It’s quite an elegant way to try to solve the problem, not only for Switzerland but also for other countries,’ said Mr Hummler.

Swiss banks are proposing an ‘unacceptable halfway house’ and leaders of the Group of 20 nations are unlikely to accept it, said John Christensen, a director at the London-based Tax Justice Network.

‘They are inadvertently confirming what everyone knows, which is that banking secrecy is hiding massive tax evasion by European elites,’ Mr Christensen said. ‘The public is pretty damn angry and those who are leading the attack on bank secrecy are in no mood to compromise.’

The proposed tax on interest, dividends, capital gains and investment income could raise ‘billions per year’ for foreign governments, according to the Swiss Bankers Association, which represents most Swiss institutions, including UBS and Credit Suisse Group. That may appeal to European governments, said Mr Hummler.

‘Do they want to see cash, or are they ideologists who just want to be right?’ he said. ‘Looking at their treasuries, I have the feeling that the cash argument is a good one.’

Switzerland already imposes a withholding tax of 35 per cent on interest payments to domestic customers. It has applied a similar policy to interest income for some European Union countries since 2005, generating 553.8 million Swiss francs (S$764.6 million) for EU governments last year.

The UK plans to raise its top income tax rate to 50 per cent from 40 per cent next year. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck has proposed boosting his country’s top rate to 47 per cent from 45 per cent, and US President Barack Obama may restore a top rate of 39.6 per cent, from the current 35 per cent.

Switzerland, which manages an estimated 27 per cent of the world’s privately held offshore wealth, agreed in March to cooperate with foreign authorities on tax evasion probes to avoid being blacklisted as a tax haven by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The withholding tax may only apply to countries with double-taxation treaties with the Alpine nation. More than a dozen are being renegotiated.

The current debate on secrecy and the unpredictability of taxes imposed by governments are luring some rich people to move to Switzerland, costing their home countries tax revenue, Mr Hummler said. A withholding tax would prompt some customers to leave in search of tax havens, he said.

‘This is a small disadvantage because there won’t be any criminalisation of our old clients; this is the most important issue,’ said Mr Hummler, who is president of the Swiss Private Bankers Association.

St Gallen-based Wegelin, founded in 1741, increased client assets under management by 20 per cent in the first half to 24 billion francs, Mr Hummler said. That includes more than two billion francs of net new money. — Bloomberg

One week later after President Obama’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese tires, Bill has this to share.

Tires, Chickens, and Trade – One Week Later
September 23, 2009

This commentary was written by Bill Witherell, Cumberland’s Chief Global Economist. He joined Cumberland after years of experience at the OECD in Paris. His bio is found on Cumberland’s home page, www.cumber.com. He can be reached at Bill.Witherell@cumber.com.

In the week following President Obama’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese tires, some commentators expressed confidence that the resulting trade dispute would be well-contained by the two countries and argued that the President had to throw some “red meat” to his trade union supporters. Other, including this writer, expressed concerns that this move could be damaging to the Obama Administration, costly for the US, and risk triggering more significant protectionist actions. The pro-business British magazine The Economist was particularly forceful in the cover story of its September 17 issue, entitled “Economic Vandalism.” The article begins with the following: “A protectionist move that is bad politics, bad economics, bad diplomacy and hurts America. Did we miss anything?” Some developments last week are encouraging, but others are not.

Starting with the negative, as was anticipated, workers in numerous US industries also suffering from competition with the Chinese have begun to clamor for similar relief. China, for its part, after threatening action against US chicken and automotive imports, has acted first in the services area, which also is covered by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and is of great commercial importance to the US. China has invoked “defense of public morals” to appeal a WTO ruling against restrictions on the distribution of US movies and other Western media, including the downloading of music. Chinese action against chicken and/or automotive imports may still follow as a result of the anti-dumping investigation China initiated.

The positive aspect of developments so far, including last week’s referral to the WTO by China of its complaint against the US action on tires, is that both sides appear to be committed to keeping the dispute within the regulatory framework of the WTO. Thus far, they are following a contract that they both signed, as described below. If the dispute can be kept inside this mechanism, the chances for containing it are reasonably good. However, that will require cool heads on the shoulders of both leaders, in the face of heated nationalist pressures. It also is essential that other countries avoiding joining in with protectionist actions of their own.

Some readers have requested a brief explanation of the legal background to this dispute. China’s accession agreement to the WTO included, at the insistence of the US, a provision referring to Section 421, a pre-existing US law, under which, if the US government perceives a large increase in the imports of any Chinese product, sanctions may be imposed to limit the inflow of that product. The test is the following: if “such increased quantities and under such conditions cause or threaten to cause market disruption to domestic producers.” Note that there is no requirement to prove that any unfair trade practices existed. We understand that the Clinton Administration gave assurances to the Chinese that the clause would never be invoked.

The process under 421 is the following: once the International Trade Commission (an independent US panel) determines that disruption, as defined by 421, has occurred, it is up to the US President to decide whether or not to impose remedies. Former President George W. Bush declined to impose remedies in the four cases that came to him. Barak Obama decided, on the contrary, to act on the first case referred to him, one where even the US industry in question, America’s tire –makers, declined to support the application for import “relief.”

This development does not bode well for the ability of the US to assume its usual and probably essential leadership role as champion of the global trading system. We may well see some negative fall-out in the coming days at the G-20 Summit in Pittsburg. Pledges there to avoid protectionist measures would sound pretty hollow. The Obama administration has thus far taken no action to reinvigorate the moribund Doha round of trade talks, nor the three free-trade agreements pending in Congress with three allies of the US, South Korea, Panama, and Columbia.

There also could be effects outside the trade area where the US needs Chinese cooperation and support, such as the climate-change negotiations, UN sanctions against Iran, and the negotiations with North Korea. Let us hope that those predicting the containment of this matter are correct. If events prove them wrong, the costs could be severe.

As portfolio managers, our greatest concern is the risk that this bilateral trade dispute spirals out of hand resulting in a trade war involving a number of countries. That would certainly drive the global economy back into a deep recession. It is difficult to overstate the importance to the global economy of the generally open trading system, the process of globalization, and the ongoing financial integration. Our current investment strategies are based on our view that the most likely outcome is that this trade dispute remains within the WTO and protectionism does not derail the global economy. Accordingly, we are bullish on the prospects for equities as the recovery of the global economy gathers steam. Our international portfolios currently are fully invested. We certainly will monitor the evolution of this dispute closely.

Cross ref http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/the-us-1202.html#comments

Posted by ray under Market Commentaries

The US dollar holds the key to Gold and Crude. Both have rallied on the back of current dollar weakness. Let’s look at Crude first.

Figure 1 shows the bullish case. We see a possible Failed Upthrust Change In Trend Pattern. This would suggest a strong upside breakout. Figure 2 shows the bearish case: Crude is in the process of forming a complex Head and Shoulders change in trend. At this stage either or neither may happen.

Figure 3 is the US dollar. We see that it recently broke support at 78.14. Note that this was a breakout from a range that spanned from Nov 1998 to June 2009. I would have been looking for an increase in range on the breakout. Instead we see that the Average True Range dropped to 130 from 230 just before the breakout. Indeed until we accepted below the Maximum Extension I was looking for a possible Negative Development Buy.

But there is another consideration….

….The Nov 1998 to June 2009 represented a period of a high volatility. So it is possible that the current low volatility is a reaction to that.

So at the moment I’d have to say that the DX is not providing any definitive clues. Stay tuned.

For charts, go to main post

http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/the-us-1202.html#comments
2009-09-22-blog-crude-oil-upthrust.jpg

All 5 video links at

http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/cashflow-today-with-ray-barros-1198.html#comment-2430