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Ana Wang Investment Weblog

Archive for May, 2009

Using intra-day charts to time entries

As shown by Adam Hewison:

Title: Can you use intra-day charts to time entries?

Intra-day charts can find low risk entry points in any market.

In this short video, I will show you how to use intra-day charts to time low-risk entry points in any market that has an established trend. In this example, I am looking at a 30-minute chart of July crude oil (CL.N09). With all of my indicators in a positive trend for crude oil, I am looking for low risk entry levels where we can add to, or institute new positions.

This video will demonstrate how to move into a market even if you have missed the initial buy/sell signal.

http://www.ino.com/info/352/CD3131/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

You can view this new video with my compliments. There are no registration requirements. Please enjoy and give your feedback on our blog. Thank you.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Key economic data as of May 11 2009

Key economic data for the week starting May 11th, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
8:30 AM Trade Balance Mar -$29.2B -$26.0B

2:00 PM Treasury Budget Apr -$63.0B $159.3B

Wednesday:
8:30 AM Retail Sales Apr -0.1% -1.2%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.0% -1.0%

10:00 AM Business Inventories Mar -1.1% -1.3%

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/08 NA +605K

10:35 AM Crude Inventories 05/08 NA NA

Thursday:
8:30 AM Core PPI Apr 0.1% 0.0%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/09 NA 601K

8:30 AM PPI Apr 0.1% -1.2%

Friday:
8:30 AM Core CPI Apr 0.1% 0.2%

8:30 AM CPI Apr 0.0% -0.1%

8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing May -15.00 -14.65

9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows NA $22.0B

9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Apr 68.9% 69.3%

9:15 AM Industrial Production Apr -0.6% -1.5%

9:55 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel May 65.0 65.1

ET NOW – First invite to Ray Barros

Ray Barros has been invited by ET NOW for a telephone interview on:

Tuesday, May 12 2009 @ 1150am HK time, for the first time!

Anchor : Andy Mukherjee for Mumbai

Topics:

  • Theory of new lows being tested.
  • Levels of Indian Indices-Sensex and Nifty
  • Nikkei in the bear market
  • Commodities
  • Dollar is weakening versus most Asian currencies
  • How is Indian rupee

For your information:

QUOTE:

ET NOW is the brand-new business television channel from The Economic Times.

The Economic Times, or ET as it is popularly known in India, is the largest business daily in the country, and the second-largest in the world, with a circulation of over 750,000. ET’s readership is nearly four times the combined readership of all other business dailies. We are a national newspaper with ten editions across the country, and we are the first choice of India’s decision makers – according to AC Nielsen’s Decision Makers’ Survey, 76% of CEOs, directors, VPs and GMs read ET daily. The time spent with ET by readers is higher than for other business dailies, and has increased over the years.

ET NOW will have real-time access to Reuters’ expertise in business information around the world, from the stock markets in New York and London to the financial centres of Tokyo, Frankfurt, Singapore and Hong Kong. With inputs from Reuters reporters, editors and analysts, ET NOW will bring our viewers all the news that moves the global markets – with special emphasis on its impact on Asia and Indian business.

The Economic Times is more than just an information source for our readers – they depend on us for the depth of our analysis, and the kind of access we have to the very top names in business – both in India and abroad. For instance, some of our guest editors have included India’s present home minister and former Finance Minister P Chidambaram, Silicon Valley venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, Dell Computers founder Michael Dell , and Coca-Cola CEO Neville Isdell.

Apeksha Vyaas

Head – Programme Coordinator

ET NOW

UNQUOTE.

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Black Gold video

USO & Crude Oil On The Move

I don’t often look at ETFs, but I find USO to be very interesting right now. This ETF, United States Oil, closely tracks the price of crude oil in New York.

This market appears to have completed a formation that could have great profit opportunities in the near term.

In my new video, I explain in detail a strategy that I am using to approach this market. As always, our videos are registration free and come with our compliments.

Please feel free to comment on our blog about your experiences and thoughts on USO and the crude oil market.

http://www.ino.com/info/351/CD3131/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

A look at GBP video

British Pound, Making Moves?

I last looked at the British Pound (GBP) on April 8th, and produced a short video explaining why I thought that this market was ready to move.

When I got back from my two week holiday in New Zealand, I thought it was only right to look at the British Pound again.

In this new short video, I will show you the steps I am taking to capitalize on a fairly substantial move I see ahead for this market.

As always the videos are free to watch and there’s no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about this market on our blog.

http://www.ino.com/info/350/CD3131/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Heart-breaking

We need to live wisely and in the present and Dr Janice Dorn has put out a timely post:

“The face you wear—the thoughts you bring—The heart may heal or break…” – Daniel Clement Colesworthy


Today, I had to admit a 35-year-old trader to the hospital. He complained of crushing substernal chest pain and collapsed at his trading desk.

He will most likely survive this horrible event. However, it is pretty clear that he will never be the same. No one gets out of this type of situation unscathed. The trauma will pass, and the immediate stress will dissipate. However, anxiety and post-traumatic stress will remain with him for years to come.

How does something like this happen? He was overweight and not in good physical health. Moreover, his stress level had been climbing over the past few months. He was trading badly and then began over-trading and taking larger positions. He was making larger and larger “tweaks” to his trading plan, and there was little or no discipline in the way he was acting, both during and after market hours.

This is never a good sign for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the drawdown on financial, mental, energetic and physical capital. This includes a “revenge it is” attitude that seemed to be setting in. You know what I mean: “I have to do something to get even with the market! I have to get back what I lost.” Again, not good. He had never seen this type of activity with some large positions that went heavily against him. The volatility of this week’s market was too much for him.

We had been working for a year to start a program to modulate his involvement with the markets and get him into a regular exercise program—weights, aerobics, yoga. He had also been working to improve his terrible diet.

We were developing a trading plan that allowed him to enter orders and stops mechanically so he would not be in sedentary stress all day, every day while watching the markets. These were all great ideas. Unfortunately, he procrastinated, agreeing to make the changes to his lifestyle, but, in the long haul, he did nothing but talk and ended up with a heart attack.

Living well and trading well are about commitment, execution, discipline and timing.

The best laid plans! He had the right ideas about changing his life, but he dragged his feet. He was over-executing his trades, getting sloppy and looking for the really big “30-40 bagger.” His drive for money got in the way of his life and health. For whatever reason, he could not follow through. He was literally falling apart. He allowed himself to break his heart, putting himself in cardiac intensive care.

I am sending every ounce of healing energy and prayer I have to him tonight and ask you to do the same. What good are all the ideas, hopes, dreams and plans you make to get right with yourself if you cannot start right now to do what you must? What is really important in your life? What are your priorities? How will you be remembered?

Start this instant to make the change you want to see in yourself. Go to the mirror and ask yourself “What is worth dying for?”

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. You, and you alone, have the power to take control of your life and of your trading. Do it now, before it becomes just another idea sitting around in a box somewhere.

“The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past, worry about the future, or to anticipate troubles. The secret is to live in the present moment wisely and earnestly….” – Buddha

The Bank Stress Test …Do you Believe It?

With so many  new acronyms and terms bandied about financial institutions, I hope you will find this informative.

So gere goes, from INO.

The bank stress test, do you believe it?

Since my return from holiday, I have been scratching my head wondering why the market (in this case the S&P) has moved so high for little or no reason. The economy still appears to be very much on the defensive with unemployment rising and the business environment still on a slippery slope.

I made this video before the stress test was announced and I suspect that all of the stress test leaks have already being discounted by the market.

My new video is a follow-up from my April 14th video that I made before I left for New Zealand. If you have a few minutes, please take the time to view it. I think you will find it interesting that my observations may conflict with current market trend.

With the Obama honeymoon coming to an end, we are going to see how the markets move without government influence. There has never been a government that was able to dodge a major business cycle… and this one sure is a doozy.

As always, the videos are available with our compliments. There is no registration required.
http://www.ino.com/info/349/CD3131/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

Please let us know your thoughts on our blog.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Law of Unintended Consequences

The attached piece by Rochdale Research is timely. I was going to write a piece on the Law of Unintended Consequences and Richard Bove writes an excellent article on the topic’s application to the ’stress tests’ for banks.

Bove’s article highlights the dangers of the Government becoming involved in business decisions – from Chrysler to ’stress’ – the risk of unintended consequences is enormous. Think of the ‘Greenspan Put’: for years, academia (Austrian economists and a few others aside) told us that business cycles problem had been solved – that it was now a thing of the past. In the process, the FED and US Government created an environment where ‘bubbles’ and financial ’skulduggery’ flourish. Not only that, if you read the books on sub-prime, some members of Congress and the Senate were pressing for their constituents to be given loans they could ill-afford.

So here’s the law in operation: the FED wanted to avoid a recession and the ill-effects of a bursting bubble – the consequences of inflating the money supply; the banks wanted to help those who traditionally were unable to afford housing; the politicians wanted to keep their constituents happy – all worthwhile sentiments. But the Law of UnIntended Consequences came into play and today we have the consequences we least desired.

Some may take issue with my statement that the banks wanted to provide assistance – that in fact all they wanted to do was improve their bottom line. Of course they wanted to improve their bottom line! We all do. But having said that, to deny that at least some saw themselves as doing a public service would be myopic. Adam Michaelson’s “The Foreclosure of America” is a fascinating glimpse into this thinking.

Obama’s team is on the same route. I accept that he has a genuine desire to alleviate the suffering and improve conditions. But in my view each step he is taking only mortgages the future of the US  and unfortunately, at least for now, this means the rest of us.

bureaucrats-and-academics.pdf

Gold setting up

Sharing with you this video from INO:

Today we’re going to take a look at the gold market. While many traders have been frustrated with this market for the past several month, it has in fact performed quite well given the generally negative feeling for most markets.

While the printing press is going at full-tilt in the US and the fact that most people are not involved in the gold market at the present time, it occurs to us that this market could indeed be setting itself up for a nice rally.

http://www.ino.com/info/348/CD3131/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

In our new video, I explain in detail some key levels to watch for in the gold market. If these levels are broken then you definitely want to take a position in the direction of the major trend.

As always, this video is available with our compliments and there is no registration required.

http://www.ino.com/info/348/CD3131/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

All the best,

Adam Hewison

President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub