Ana_Idkit

I was going to complete my views on a ‘measure of contraction’ that I started yesterday. But this issue of Denise Shull’s (http://traderpsyches.com/) newsletter was one I wanted to share with you. She gives excellent advice.

Her site for all her letters is: http://community.icontact.com/search?q=trader%20psyches&in=all&age=week

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A trader can read dozens of books and add scores of indicators to their charts. Some easily spend upwards of $20,000 or more buying indicators or courses yet still they are basically break-even (or worse) at the end of the month.

Why do only 5% of the traders who day-trade end up successful?

Two reasons – #1) Many just want an indicator that is going to reveal the market to them and it is too competitive for that to work.

#2) The vast majority don’t approach the challenge in a way that will work. To a large degree, this isn’t the trader’s fault because most do what they have been taught by scores of “experts”.

Here is what will work. Guaranteed.

1. Never forget that the only thing you want to do is predict that others will buy higher or sell lower in your timeframe.

2. Settle on a strategy (and set of tactics) that suits your personality and thinking patterns.

3. Plan to use your judgment in the midst of making decision and entering trades! You are not a robot and you will never become one. Your brain is going to kick-in with its built-in facility for decision making in uncertain situations. In other words, you won’t be able to stop it from making judgments and compelling you to act so… work with it.

4. Learn to optimize that judgment through simplicity, practice, keeping records and knowing your feelings and emotions.

5. Manage your Psychological Capital (Mental Energy) more carefully than you manage your trades.

The money will follow. Your brain will work, your pattern recognition will work and your plan (a realistic one) will indeed be realized.

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External finances remain strong and the government has neither foreign-currency nor external debt, the agency says

By EMILYN YAP

CITING Singapore’s strong finances, flexible government policies and stable political scene, Fitch Ratings yesterday affirmed the country’s ‘AAA’ sovereign ratings.

The general government fiscal surplus (including revenue and payment streams of the CPF) was equivalent to 13.6 per cent of GDP in FY08/09, which is ‘far better than the AAA median’. - Fitch

The rating agency said that it affirmed Singapore’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) at ‘AAA’. It also affirmed the country’s short-term foreign currency IDR at ‘F1+’ and its country ceiling at ‘AAA’. Fitch’s outlook on the ratings remains stable.

‘Singapore’s external finances remain strong and the government has neither foreign-currency nor external debt,’ Fitch said in its release.

In fact, the country’s international reserves (including gold) continued to grow and reached a record US$174 billion as at end-2008 – equivalent to five months of current external payments, it noted.

Singapore’s net external credit position also remains solid, Fitch added. While ‘the high short-term external debt (80 per cent of gross external debt), especially those of non-bank private-sector entities, could pose a risk amid the tight liquidity conditions’, recent government policies to support domestic credit growth could improve the situation, it said.

Fitch noted that furthermore, Singapore’s public finances are prudently managed. The general government fiscal surplus (including revenue and payment streams of the Central Provident Fund) was equivalent to 13.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in FY08/09, which is ‘far better than the ‘AAA’ median’. However, Fitch expects this ratio to drop to 3.9 per cent in FY09/10 due to a sizable fiscal stimulus package.

‘The country’s public finances are structurally strong despite the current cyclical weakening amid the adverse effects of the global economic recession,’ said associate director of Asia sovereign ratings Vincent Ho.

The government on Tuesday cut its 2009 economic forecast to a contraction of 6-9 per cent. Fitch projects that Singapore’s economy would contract by 12.6 per cent this year before recovering to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2010.

Despite the positive views on Singapore’s public finances, Fitch expressed concerns about the ‘transparency of past reserves and balance sheet details of the government and its sovereign wealth fund’- issues which are ‘uncommon among ‘AAA’ sovereigns’, it said.

• The U.S. Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($19/month value)
• The European Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($29/month value)
• The Asian-Pacific Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($31/month value)

• World stock markets (China, Japan, Korea, U.S, France, Britain and more)
• Global interest rates (Australia, Europe, Japan, U.S.)
• International currency relationships (U.S. Dollar, Euro rates, Swiss Francs, Japanese Yen and more)
• Metals and Energy (Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Natural Gas)
• And so much more!

This is truly a very rare occasion, and it only lasts for just a few more days. Whether you use Elliott or not, we highly recommend you stop by the webpage below and take advantage of this limited-time, completely free offer.

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Regards,

IDkit aka Ana

Key economic data for the week starting April 20, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	10:00 AM Leading Indicators Mar -0.2% -0.4%

Wednesday:
	10:35 AM Crude Inventories 04/17 NA +5670K

Thursday:
	8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/18 630K 610K 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Mar 4.65M 4.72M

Friday:
	8:30 AM Durable Orders Mar -1.5% 5.1% 8:30 AM Durable Orders, Ex-Auto Mar -1.2% 3.9% 10:00 AM New Home Sales Mar 340K 337K

By Anna Wang: