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Archive for January 24th, 2009

Ox that is bear at heart

Ox that is a bear at heart
Business Times Jan 24 09

(Hong Kong)

NO BULL
Fengshui masters say that fire, essential to financial well-being, is nowhere to be found in the Year of the Ox

IF the global economy fails to recover in 2009, the housing bubble or credit crunch may not be to blame. It could be a lack of fire.

Chinese fortune tellers say that fire – one of the five elements that mystics believe form the basis of the universe – is essential to financial well-being. And fire is nowhere to be found in the mythology of this coming Year of the Ox, which begins on Monday.

‘Fire is the driving force behind economic growth. Without it, the market lacks momentum,’ said Raymond Lo, a Hong Kong master of fengshui, the ancient Chinese practice of trying to achieve health, harmony and prosperity through building design, the placement of objects and auspicious dates and numbers.

Chinese soothsayers see a deepening recession, millions more losing their jobs, and stocks and home prices continuing to fall.

That’s more or less in line with what some economists are predicting, but some fortune tellers are throwing in other dire predictions – massive earthquakes, rising US-Russian tension and trouble for US President Barack Obama.

Mr Obama, born in the Year of the Ox, is taking office in a particularly bad year for his Chinese astrological sign. The ox sign is in direct conflict this year with a traditional Chinese divinity called the ‘God of Year’, considered a bad omen. Mr Obama also is the 44th president, a number that the Chinese deem extremely unlucky, because ‘four’ is pronounced the same as ‘death’ in Chinese.

‘The new US president is not having good luck this year. His honeymoon will only be short-lived,’ said fortune teller Alion Yeo, predicting that Mr Obama may even face impeachment in his first year in office. ‘The Year of the Ox looks slightly better and less dire than last year, but it will still be bumpy.’ Mr Yeo also predicted that the US mortgage crisis would worsen and the stock market would plunge to new lows.

The ox, one of 12 animals in the Chinese zodiac, symbolises calm, hard work, resolve and tenacity. According to legend, the ox allowed the cunning rat to ride on its head in a race to determine the animals’ order. Shortly before the ox crossed the finish line, the rat leaped off to claim victory. The Year of the Rat was marked in 2008.

Among the world’s luminaries born in the Year of the Ox are former US president Richard Nixon (1913), former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher (1925), Princess Diana (1961), and Hollywood actors George Clooney (1961) and Richard Gere (1949). — AP

Key economic data as of 26 Jan 09

Key economic data for the week starting January  26th, 2009. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR (Dec) (H) 4.40M 4.49M

EXISTING HOME SALES M/M (Dec) (H) -2.0% -8.6%

Tuesday:
S&P CASE SHILLER Y/Y (Nov) (H) -18.4% -18.0%

CONF.BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Jan) (H) 39 38

RICHMOND FED MANUF. INDEX (Jan) (M) -49.0 -55.0

Wednesday:
FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT (Jan) (H) 0-0.25% 0-0.25%
Thursday:
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M (Dec) (H) -2.0% -1.5%

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M (Dec) (H) -2.5% 0.6%

CONTINUING CLAIMS Jan-17 (L) 4607K

INITIAL CLAIMS Jan-24 (L) 589K

NEW HOME SALES M/M (Dec) (H) -1.7% -2.9%

Friday:
January 30 GDP M/M (Nov) (H) -0.4% -0.1%

GDP (annualized) (Q4) (H) -5.0% -0.5%

CHICAGO PMI (Jan) (M) 34.2 35.1

MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Jan) (H) 61.9 61.9