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Archive for July 12th, 2008

IndyMac under conservatorship

Friday, July 11 2008

Breaking news after market close – Indymac belly-up!

After market close on Friday, the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) closed the $32 billion IndyMac Bank,  and transferred operations to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the holding company for IndyMac Bank, has been struggling to raise capital as the housing slump deepens.Depositors will have no access to banking services online and by telephone this weekend, but will continue to have access to their funds this weekend by ATM, through other debit card transactions and by writing checks. Online banking and phone banking services will be available again on Monday.

“This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis,” OTS Director John Reich said. “Although this institution was already in distress, I am troubled by any interference in the regulatory process.”

IndyMac is the largest OTS-regulated thrift ever to fail and, according to FDIC data, the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history.

IndyMac had been in a precarious financial situation  since  August of 2007. The OTS had significant concerns with the bank’s funding strategy, had directed appropriate changes and was finalizing a new set of enforcement actions to address its numerous problems.

As a result of an OTS examination that began in January 2008, the OTS deemed IndyMac to be in troubled condition.

IndyMac had reacted to market conditions and OTS concerns in November 2007 by changing its operations and business plan to build a foundation for recovery. IndyMac was actively seeking to arrange a significant capital infusion or find a buyer. The recent release of the senator’s letter undermined the public confidence essential for a financial institution and took away the time IndyMac needed to pursue a recovery.

With no viable alternatives and insufficient liquidity, IndyMac was placed into receivership. The OTS has appointed the FDIC as conservator of the newly chartered successor institution and will transfer most of the assets and liabilities of IndyMac to the new thrift.

Depositors’ accounts at IndyMac are insured by the FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund up to the statutory limits.

ON HINDSIGHT

I decide to have a look at the monthly and weekly  charts of  IndyMac Bancorp (due to copyright I cannot post the charts). Based on market price movements, the monthly trend already signaled a downtrend about a year ago with another signal to sell early this year. The trend has been going down until now, having eroded its price value from USD36.00 to USD0.27 in one year.

I then look  back over five  similar failures of other financial institutions such as Franklin National in October 1974, Penn Square in July 1982, Continental Illinois in July 1884, First Republic Bank in July 1988 and Bank of New England in January 1991.

In spite of proclamations of doom at the times, the failures tended to be climactic events.  The average return of  S&P500 6 months after such failures was +19.5%.  The average loss for same period was -2.0%, with  a gain of  10 times in comparison.

Will we see a similar process with Indymac?  Too early to tell.

We may see Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac facing similar fates  which I post recently  at:

http://awanginvest.com/?p=548

Probably,  we will see the same kind of washout, long overdue.

Spore towards a new plateau – MM Lee

Published July 12, 2008

Next 5 to 10 years will be most promising for S’pore: MM Lee

We are going to move into a new plateau, a new platform, he says

By LEE U-WEN

(SINGAPORE) For someone who has openly admitted that he worries constantly about the future of the country he’s helped to build, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew yesterday painted a surprisingly upbeat picture of what the near future holds for Singapore.

The next five to 10 years will be the ‘most promising’ in the Republic’s entire history, said Mr Lee last night at a dialogue organised by the Economic Society of Singapore (ESS).

Responding to a question about whether he was still optimistic about Singapore’s growth prospects, Mr Lee said: ‘If there are no big recessions worldwide, easily 4 to 6 per cent, maybe 7 to 8 per cent (a year). We should be all right.’

The hour-long dialogue at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel – attended by over 800 guests including economists and academics – was the first time that Mr Lee had spoken at an ESS event since 1969.

‘We are going to move into a new plateau, a new platform. I took a drive around Marina Bay the other day. You can see the boardwalk they are putting up, the integrated resorts, Clarke Quay, the Singapore River. This will be a beautiful city in five years. In 10 years, it will be wonderful and on a different plane,’ he said.

But with Singapore facing tough structural issues such as an ageing and dwindling domestic population, Mr Lee described the country as ‘not normal’ compared to other cities such as Hong Kong and Macau.


‘We are on our own, running our own navy, army and air force. Hong Kong does not do that, neither does Macau. We therefore have no room for making mistakes, hence the biggest expenditure in our budget is defence, followed by education. Without defence, you are inviting everyone to just walk in and take over – and they will,’ he said.

At the end of the day, Mr Lee said, the government had a duty to give the best life possible for the population. But the ‘biggest problem’, he said, was in retaining talented individuals that want to make Singapore their home.

‘We have educated Singaporeans in English to the best of the world’s standards, made them viable and employable anywhere in the world. You need that core group who are able, well-trained, to say this is my country and I’m going to build it up,’ said Mr Lee.

On the flip side, however, he explained how Singapore has been successful in attracting talent from overseas who eventually take root and settle down here.

‘We have lost some whom we would have dearly loved to keep. We’ve trained them, high fliers who went to the US to top universities, then worked for financial corporations and big institutions. Maybe they’ll come back, maybe they won’t. At the same time, we have even larger numbers of people – from India, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Nepal, who want to stay here,’ he said. ‘I’m not so pessimistic about the trade-off. I think so far we are net winners.’

Mr Lee was also asked about whether Singapore needed a liberal democracy to succeed economically, a suggestion that the Minister Mentor pounced on.

‘Over the years, nations have become quite ideological in saying that if you want to succeed, you must have a free market and liberal democracy. The idea is that if everyone had a liberal democracy, there would be no wars. I doubt that.’

‘They are prescribing universal rules for the whole world. My question to them is: ‘Have you ever run Singapore? Do you know how we got here?’. . . We are not stupid people, they give us all this advice. The International Bar Association, who are they? Have you ever built a community and given them jobs? We have, and we know what’s good for us.’

Mr Lee then suggested how there was a conspiracy by foreigners against Singapore’s success story. ‘Why? Because we are a little red dot. They see us as a threat. The Russians are studying us. How does this little country, with so little talent, keep its ruling party in place and run a tight ship, honest and effective, and make progress? Can they do it? I don’t know. They are picking up points here and there. If they can, good luck to them.’

The key to being successful in this regard, he added, was to ‘have a feel for the people and be honest and meritocratic’.

‘Can this system last? I’m not sure. I’ve done my job. I’ve passed it on to the next generation. I hope they will pass it on to an equally confident generation. As long as they can do it, they will last.’

Other Top Print Edition Stories Headlines

Fab Dubailand video

My friends Mety & Uwe from Germany sent me this exhilerating video on Dubai.

Now we are contributing to their developments by filling up our petrol tanks, so to speak!

 

Watch this video slides: no sound , and you need to click on arrow for slides:

 

http://mail.google.com/mail/?ui=2&ik=200c1f74c7&attid=0.1&disp=vgp&view=att&th=11b13899c7645aec

Software problems bug Apple’s launch of new iPhone

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=791329507

Friday, July 11, 2008 6:59:04 PM
By PETER SVENSSON

Software problems bug Apple's launch of new iPhone

The launch of Apple Inc.’s much-anticipated new iPhone turned into an information-technology meltdown on Friday, as customers were unable to get their phones working.

“It’s such grief and aggravation,” said Frederick Smalls, an insurance broker in Whitman, Mass., after spending two hours on the phone with Apple and AT&T Inc., trying to get his new iPhone to work.

In stores, people waited at counters to get the phones activated, as lines built behind them. Many of the customers had already camped out for several hours in line to become among the first with the new phone, which updates the one launched a year ago by speeding

Other  Top Headlines  Photos

Senate passes mortgage rescue plan

up Internet access and adding a navigation chip.

A spokesman for AT&T, the exclusive carrier for the iPhone in the U.S., said there was a global problem with Apple’s iTunes servers that prevented the phones from being fully activated in-store, as had been planned.

Instead, employees are telling buyers to go home and perform the last step by connecting their phones to their own computers, spokesman Michael Coe said.

However, the iTunes servers were equally hard to reach from home, leaving the phones unusable except for emergency calls.

The problem extended to owners of the previous iPhone model. A software update released for that phone on Friday morning required the phone to be reactivated through iTunes.

“It’s a mess,” said freelance photographer Giovanni Cipriano, who updated his first-generation iPhone only to find it unusable.

Apple shares fell $4.05, or 2.3 percent, to close Friday at $172.58 amid a general decline in U.S. stocks.

When the first iPhone went on sale a year ago, customers performed the whole activation procedure at home, freeing store employees to focus on sales. But the new model is subsidized by carriers, and Apple and AT&T therefore planned to activate all phones in-store to get customers on a contract.

The new phone went on sale in 21 countries on Friday, creating a global burden on the iTunes servers.

The iPhone has been widely lauded for its ease of use and rich features, but Apple is a newcomer to the cell-phone business, and it’s made some missteps. When it launched the first phone in the U.S. a year ago, it initially priced the phones high, at $499 and $599, then cut the price by $200 just 10 weeks later, throwing early buyers for a loop.

Rollouts to other countries were slow, as Apple tried to get carriers on board with its unusual pricing scheme, which included monthly fees to Apple. The business model of the new phone follows industry norms, and the price is lower: $199 or $299 in the U.S.

Economic Data for week as of 14 July 2008

Key economic data for the week starting July 14th, 2008. Numbers shown are consensus  and prior value.

Tuesday:
08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.3% 0.2%
08:30 NY Empire State Index Jul -4.0 -8.7
08:30 PPI Jun 1.3% 1.4%
08:30 Retail Sales Jun 0.3% 1.0%
Wednesday:
08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2%
08:30 CPI Jun 0.7% 0.6%
10:30 Crude Inventories 07/12 NA -5840K
14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 25
Thursday:
08:30 Initial Claims 07/12 NA 346K
10:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul -15.2 -17.