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Ana Wang Investment Weblog

IN QUEST OF THE HOLY GRAIL

It is not hyperbole when I say many beginners dedicate their lives to searching for the Holy Grail – a perfect indicator or trading system with a 100% success rate for setups!

There are also some who have been trading for years, tried and tested a number of successful systems but they forget, drop what they are doing and head off for the latest fad , especially when ads offering incredible systems catch their eye.

Perfectionists have the need to avoid unpleasant emotional experiences. Hence, traders who seek the perfect system are likely to be motivated by the need to avoid unpleasant experiences.

The only pain that we will suffer is the emotional reaction to a loss ,worse than being jabbed with a pin, or even the post op pain that our mentor Ray is now undergoing while taking his first step out of bed after THR. If we focus on avoiding losses rather than on maximizing overall gain, we are unlikely to succeed at trading.

A group of traders may all incur the same loss but suffer different emotional responses. This depends on their past experiences — not only while trading but in the broader arena of life.

For example, the more competitive they are, the more uncomfortable they are likely to be about incurring losses. From an early age, many of us are programmed to compete: to win; to accomplish; to be top of the class; to be right; and to succeed at whatever we set out to do. Losses are thus equated with losing — to be avoided at all costs. This group is the A- type Personality.

Not all perfectionists are A-type personalities. Many procrastinate, or avoid competing altogether, to avoid failure.

Newcomers to trading often start off with a string of positive experiences. Without the basics of Money Management, they are often over-confident and bet large amounts of their capital in the expectation of further gains.

Past trauma affects how we view related experiences. I recall what Denise Shull said about “Echoes of Perception” . A child who almost drowns may be prone to developing (hydro) aqua-phobia. I was a case in point, fearing water because I have a tendency to get cramps in the legs, even now. I did not overcome this echo of perception of water until after my first child was born when I took swimming lessons in order to join my ‘water babies’ – this vision was so powerful that it erased my fears completely. Faith can move mountains, and this helps.

Similarly, when hit with the shock and awe of a major loss, many traders never recover. They quit trading completely or spend their entire career trying to avoid a repeat of that negative emotional experience.

How can we overcome this phobia or echo of perception?

We must see losses and profits as part and parcel of trading. In fact, complete elimination of losses should be seen as a failure rather than to equate failure with losses.

We must learn how to distinguish between small normal losses and large abnormal losses in our trading system.

We hear that top successful traders aim and enjoy success rates of 30-50% p.a , and it would be naïve for us not so super traders to aim for more. They are able to maintain this rate with sound Money Management, to restrict the size of each loss while realizing substantial gains on successful trades , that is, by running their profits high with trailing stops or the Rule of 3 as taught by Mentor Ray.

Hence, we should focus on the collective effect , maximizing gains , not on the impact of individual transactions.

Denise Shull has this to say,too: Do what it takes to be trading only when you have got close to optimal levels of physical, mental and mostly, emotional energy – your Psychological Capital.

How do we do that? Denise said:

1. Learn to judge your mind, body and emotional static FIRST.

2. If the body is tired or the mind is wired on other elements in life or there is lots of emotional static in the form of aggravation, fear, or even “yippeekyaaaa, kyaaa” (I am a great trader), then execute on dealing with these energy levels first and foremost.

The net effect will be to avoid a debit to our cash capital and our psychological capital when the markets, our strategy and we all line up. Putting our psyche first can only mean higher odds of total profitability in our trading.

NOW witness the wisdom of Samuel Clemens:

“We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it – and stop there;

Lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove-lid.

She will never sit down on a hot stove-lid again, and that is well;

But also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore”

++++++++++++

This brings me to recall the movie:

CAT ON A HOT TIN ROOF

Starring Elizabeth Taylor who also had a hip replacement, if I recall right.

Our mentor Ray is in good company, seeing how well she is moving still among the Stars.

TAKE HEART, RAY, YOU WILL DO MORE, SHOOTING TO THE STARS!

5 Comments

  1. The philosopher Goethe makes a wise observation about commitment that many novice traders would be wise to heed: “Until one is committed, there is hesitancy, the chance to draw back.”

    In his book, The Mentally Tough Online Trader, Robert Koppel observes, “Top performing traders are committed to overcome any hardship or roadblock to achieve their goals.”

    Trading requires a huge commitment account. You also need to invest time and energy. Unless you are a genius, it’s impossible to digest the full range of trading knowledge over night.

    Learning about the markets and developing an intuitive feel as to how they behave requires time and practice. In some cases, it can take many years before you can trade the markets profitably.

    But to the trader who is fully committed, these are minor setbacks. He will do whatever it takes to attain financial success – a constant refrain from our mentor Ray.

  2. C as used by Janice Dorn, so our goal is to get right with our Condition ie self so that we are in the best mental, emotional, physical and spiritual condition. This C will give the necessary edge to become successful, not only in trading, but in every aspect of one’s life.

    Quote:
    To keep the body in good health is a duty…otherwise we shall not be able to keep our mind strong and clear -
    Hindu Prince Gautama Siddharta, founder of Buddhism, 563-483 B.C.

  3. The question has always been “where can I find that better method?”

    Let us posit the answer: that elusive “better method” lies in an understanding of the basics of market behavior, i.e. the better method starts with understanding market value.

    While it is human nature to want to know the future, correctly predicting markets could be very profitable. Guides to trading are advertised in many trade journals, some with claims of large successes. What is being sold is often a simple methodology of some limited value to a new trader. The excessive claims are the bait.

    A more prudent approach is to start from first principles and understand the market itself before projecting solutions. In such a scientific, empirical approach, market understanding is placed on a firm, testable foundation and inferences can then be drawn from the behavior of the market variables.

    Eg, Market Profile used by mentor Ray, does offer a marker (value) that indicates change as it begins. This is at best what one can predict about the market , as it changes; it does not predict the future direction of any market.http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/

  4. A nugget of wisdom: Elbert Hubbard

    Men by habit and nature who are untrue to a trust are dangerous just in proportion as they are clever. I would like to see a university devoted to turning out safe men instead of merely clever ones.

  5. Arrogance Index: (submitted by NicT)

    Hong Kong’s richest man has unveiled his secret to success – an index warning against arrogance.

    Li Ka-shing said his formula was borrowed from the Greeks: to strike a balance between “arete” – meaning goodness, excellence and virtue – and “hubris”, referring to pride bordering on arrogance.

    “The hubris index governs not only our attitude, but our behaviour. Are we excessively proud and boastful? Do we fail to listen to foils [critics] that say you’re wrong? Do we refuse to get feedback about the outcome of our acts and decisions? And are we lax in planning in advance for possible problems, consequences and corrective measures?” he asked.

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