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Archive for June 7th, 2008

21st Century belongs to China

The Biggest Economic Opportunity of the 21st Century

By Tim Hanson May 30, 2008
Master investor Warren Buffett has said the 21st century will belong to China. Venture capitalist John Doerr has called cleantech “the biggest economic opportunity of this century.”

Put those two statements together, and you have the makings of the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century.

Brace yourself
See, China’s economic miracle has not come without costs. One of the highest has been paid by the environment. China’s factories, power plants, cities, and enormous demand for natural resources have taken a severe toll on the country — tainting the air, the water, and the land.

China is now the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. Air pollution is a significant worry for athletes preparing to compete outdoors in the Beijing Olympics, and National Geographic recently reported on the “cancer villages” that line the once-pristine but now polluted Yellow River.

The good news is that the Chinese government is no longer turning a blind eye to the problem. The 11th (and most recent) five-year plan made a national “green strategy” a core platform. That means penalties for businesses that abuse the environment, as well as a focus on conservation and emissions reduction, and an emphasis on sustainable development rather than on more rapid development at any cost.

What’s said is done
Starting to clean up China and having a clean China are monumentally different realities; however, the country’s Xinhua News Agency recently reported on some of the significant penalties that have been levied on polluters. For example, “Companies that were identified as violating environmental laws were barred from the Canton Fair … the most important channel for Chinese exporters to expand overseas.” What’s more, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has “banned loans to blacklisted companies.”

In other words, bad environmental practices will get you cut off from international trade and access to capital. For a small, growing business in China, that will mean fast failure.

A blueprint for green
This is not a surprise. When the Chinese government includes a platform in its five-year plan, it means business. That’s why, as an investor, one of the smartest ways to think about investing in China is to focus on trends that the government has supported on the record.

This brings us to green, clean, and alternative-energy technologies, a.k.a. cleantech.

The China State Environmental Protection Agency estimated that investment in environmental protection would top $160 billion during the current five-year period (2006-2010). What’s more, China’s enormous trade surplus, significant construction plans, and new focus on green initiatives have the potential to turn the country into the world’s largest marketplace for cleantech.

That’s good for the environment, but what’s even better for investors is that there are no state-owned companies operating in the space. So unlike most commercial niches in China, where behemoths such as PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) and China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) both dominate and are protected, the government will be very welcoming to foreign, public, and foreign and public companies in a rapidly growing space.

Straight cash
One public company that’s already set to work on China’s environmental issues is General Electric (NYSE: GE). The company is pushing its Ecomagination initiatives hard in the country, and GE China is now more than a $5 billion business. Speaking on his company’s commitment, GE China CEO Steve Bertamini told Fortune, “The Chinese will lead the way in these technologies just because they have to.”

But even though China will be an important lever for GE, GE is an enormous conglomerate, and the green opportunities in China alone won’t help the stock double or triple from here. And although not nearly as large as GE, the same holds true for big, well-known companies pursuing cleantech, such as BP (NYSE: BP).

That, however, is not true for several innovative small companies.

Two small China cleantech plays
One is Fuel Tech (Nasdaq: FTEK), which manufactures air-pollution reduction systems for use in (among other applications) coal-fired power plants. Given that China may face a 10-gigawatt energy shortage this year and already plans to build the equivalent of one coal power plant per week over the next decade, this is an enormous opportunity for Fuel Tech, a company that’s already seeing adoption of its products in China and has just $85 million in trailing revenue and a $550 million market cap.

Wind power is also a candidate for widespread adoption in China. According to a recent report in Shanghai Daily, the government is thinking about increasing subsidies to wind power to expand capacity from 5,600 megawatts to 100,000 megawatts by 2020. GE’s expertise in this niche means that it will almost certainly be involved, but small Chinese company A-Power Energy Generation Systems (Nasdaq: APWR) also moved in 2007 to “become a full-scale producer of high-quality wind turbines,” according to Chairman and CEO Jinxiang Lu.

Yet both of these companies — for good reason — have a fair amount of optimism priced into their shares. Fuel Tech trades for nearly 75 times trailing earnings, and A-Power, which was taken public via a special-purpose acquisition company, has more than tripled since last year. In other words, these are both better suited as watch list candidates than as outright buys today.

Bernanke on USD

Bernanke Remarks on Dollar

Last Update: 03-Jun-08 12:32 ET


When Fed Chairman Bernanke gives a speech on the economic outlook, the market listens.  In Tuesday’s speech delivered via satellite to the International Monetary Conference, it wasn’t so much what the Fed Chairman said about the economy, as it was about the dollar, that caught the market’s attention.

By and large, Bernanke’s remarks on the economic outlook followed form with opinions already known to the market. 

He made note of the downside risks to growth that remain until the housing market, and particularly housing prices, show clearer signs of stabilization.  He acknowledged that rising commodity prices stand as an important risk to the inflation forecast and that there is a risk high headline inflation could lead to increased inflation expectations.

Notably, Bernanke offered the reminder that “…the pass-through of high raw material costs to domestic labor costs and the prices of most other products has been limited, in part because of softening domestic demand.”  Bernanke added, however, that there was no guarantee that pattern will continue and that it bears close watching.

The Fed Chairman repeated the official view that we may see somewhat better economic conditions in the second half of 2008 as the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus kick in, the financial and credit markets continue to heal, and the drag on growth from the downturn in residential construction lessens.

The newest bit of information from the Fed Chairman came in the acknowledgment that the Fed is “…attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate, including the risk of an erosion in longer-term inflation expectations.  Over time, the Federal Reserve’s commitment to both price stability and maximum sustainable employment and the underlying strengths of the U.S. economy… will be key factors ensuring that the dollar remains a strong and stable currency.”

The weight of this statement was seen instantaneously in the dollar index, which spiked 1.0% as Bernanke’s remarks hit the wires.

From a policy standpoint, Bernanke’s comments on the dollar implied (again) that it is likely we have seen the last of the rate cuts in a rate-cutting cycle that dates back to September 18, 2007.

At the same time, Bernanke’s remarks succeeded in knocking back many dollar-denominated commodity prices, which have risen sharply as the dollar has weakened against a basket of other major currencies.

The dollar’s strength today is being interpreted by some sources as a source of support for the stock market.  That’s true to an extent since a moderation in commodity prices, and particularly oil prices, is a welcome point of relief.

The caveat here, though, is that one needs to be careful what they wish for when taking into account that profits ultimately drive the stock market and that the dollar’s weakness has been a great source of earnings strength for multinational companies. 

A stronger dollar might help curtail inflation, but it will also restrain profit growth for many U.S. corporations with an international presence, which is basically most major U.S. corporations. 

A flat, or stronger dollar, is one of four factors we cited in a recent Big Picture column that leads Briefing.com to believe the S&P 500 won’t put in a very strong year (20% or more) for several years.

Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com

Weekly Calendar as of June 9, 2008

Key economic data for the week starting June 9nd, 2008.

Numbers shown are consensus estimates and prior value.

Tuesday:
08:30 Trade Balance Apr -$59.5B -$58.2B
Wednesday:
10:30 Crude Inventories 06/07 NA -4802K 14:00 Treasury Budget May NA NA
Thursday:
08:30 Initial Claims 06/07 NA 357K 08:30 Retail Sales May 0.6% -0.2%
Friday:
08:30 Core CPI May 0.2% 0.1% 08:30 CPI May 0.5% 0.2%

NOT & free Webinar

Cross ref from

tradingsuccess.com/blog/

For Nature of Trend (NOT) purchasers I have an announcement. In early August, I shall hold a free 3.5 hour webinar to illustrate how to use the NOT material to day trade. I’ll do this ‘live’. For those that would like to attend, just send me a scanned copy of your receipt and I’ll reserve a spot. When you send in the receipt, do nominate a time that would be most convenient.For those who have bought NOT but are unable to attend (pressures of work etc), send in the copy and I’ll send you a link to a recording of the event. At this stage I don’t know the capacity I’ll have for the webinar but will allocate seats on a ‘first come, first serve’ basis.

One Response to “ NOT Announcement & Pot Pourri ”

Comments:

  1. ray says:
  2. PSYOU MAY EMAIL scanned receipt to ANA AT yintrader08@gmail.com in view of my period of convalescence post op.

Sovereign wealth funds -withdrawn

Thanks to NicT for this ARTICLE:

June 6, 2008

Temasek turned down plea to invest in Bear Stearns
Investment firm could have declined due to practical and political reasons, says report
By Lee Su Shyan, Assistant Money Editor
SEEKING HELP: Bear Stearns’ advisers reportedly approached Temasek believing it had the capability to vet complex transactions. — PHOTO: REUTERS

TEMASEK Holdings turned down a plea for financing from Bear Stearns just days before the troubled investment bank was sold off in a Wall Street fire sale.It is believed the political backlash against investments by some sovereign wealth funds may have deterred Temasek from joining a possible bailout of the famed American institution.

Temasek was reported on Thursday to have received the request for funding late on March 14 – a Friday – just hours before the Federal Reserve choreographed a dramatic rescue of Bear.

The Fed agreed to guarantee some Bear assets, paving the way for JPMorgan Chase’s bargain-basement purchase of Bear.

Temasek was approached because it was seen as one of the few sovereign wealth funds with the internal capability to vet complex transactions, according to a report in the Financial Times (FT).

Bear’s advisers at investment bank Lazard Freres told Temasek it needed to respond before the following Monday morning.

The short timeframe made it hard to do any real due diligence, and Temasek declined for practical – and political – reasons, the FT said.

Temasek apparently feared an investment in Bear could generate controversy, given ‘how American’ the bank was.

A Temasek spokesman said yesterday: ‘We do not comment on unsourced media reports.’

Sovereign wealth funds have become increasingly sensitive to the political backlash their high-profile investments have generated recently.

Several big banks have had to turn to these funds to shore up their capital, providing a rare opportunity for the funds to take stakes in these global institutions.

Temasek pumped US$5 billion (S$6.8 billion) into Merrill Lynch, while the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) invested 11 billion Swiss francs (S$14.4 billion) in Swiss giant UBS and US$6.88 billion in Citigroup.

The Kuwait Investment Authority and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority also invested in Citigroup.

The spate of investments prompted the European Union to raise concerns over the supposed ’secrecy’ of these funds.

There have also been calls for them to be more transparent and open their books, with some even demanding for curbs to be placed on their investments.

In March, the Bush administration agreed with Abu Dhabi and Singapore on a set of policy principles to ensure that their investment funds would be used for economic, not political, goals.

Kuwait Investment Authority executives have asked companies seeking money from it to ‘clear our name with politicians before you talk to us’, said the FT.

Still, politics aside, the Bear investment may not have been appropriate for Temasek.

While Bear is a famous bank, it has more of a US orientation, unlike Citibank, UBS and Merrill Lynch, which have a much larger international presence, including significant operations in Singapore.

‘These three banks have much more of a global reach. Also, if you look at Temasek’s exposure to financial institutions, from the point of diversification, you don’t want all your eggs in one basket,’ said Mr Chua Hak Bin, chief Asian strategist at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management.

Temasek also invested in Barclays Bank, a deal struck before it bought into Merrill Lynch.

There has been criticism that the timing of the investments by Temasek and GIC came too early in the sub-prime meltdown, as shares have fallen since.

Mr Stephen Schwarzman, founder and head of private equity giant Blackstone, told the FT this week: ‘Money from sovereign wealth funds was exceptionally helpful to…US and other financial institutions around the world. But since the spotlight has been put on them, they have pulled back dramatically.

‘They don’t want to be members of a club that doesn’t want them as members. They’ve pretty much withdrawn.’