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Archive for May 12th, 2008

Infrastructure is the way to go…

In spite of the subprime messes, there are investors willing to cough up cash if there is ‘infrastructure’ rather than structured products.

This is what is  making the headlines now:

Quote:

Structured? Forget It. Infrastruture? That’s More Like It.

Morgan Stanley just closed on a $4 billion new infrastructure fund, handily topping its original target of $2.5 billion and proving, once again, that plenty of people have the cash to cough up if the investment is right (as in light on the “structure,” heavy on the “infra”). A detailed piece out today on just how this fund plans to thrust itself into the already packed field of betting on roads, airports and public-works projects on a global scale.

Morning Call: May 12

The effort, which was made final last week, capped more than a year of fund-raising for Morgan Stanley, which tapped pension funds, wealthy individuals, and more than 100 of its own employees for seed money in the new private-equity venture.

The strong interest underscores investor desire for exposure to nontraditional assets during a time of economic turbulence. The fund’s successful closing was reported Sunday on the Financial Times Web site.

“People want to diversify away from traditional equity markets and fixed income into alternative assets,” said Sadek Wahba, 42 years old, the global head of Morgan Stanley Infrastructure, a unit of the firm’s large asset-management division. Investors are looking optimistically upon infrastructural investments that are “more stable, and more long-term,” he added.

The closing of the Morgan Stanley fund is the latest evidence of the flood of money being invested by Wall Street in public-infrastructure funds. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised a $6.5 billion infrastructure fund last year. Citigroup Inc. is also raising money for an infrastructure fund that is expected to be in the $4.5 billion range, exceeding its $3 billion target, according to someone familiar with the situation.

Under the leadership of Chief Executive John Mack, Morgan Stanley has aggressively re-entered the private-equity business after spinning off its private-equity unit in 2004. It started the new group in 2006 and is in the process of raising a $6 billion buyout fund. In recent months, it has poached buyout executives from firms such as Carlyle Group, Apax Partners and Apollo Management LP.


Bonus 313 for readers

As I use the term 313 for my subscribers from time to time in my analysis, I would also like to share with readers what I mean by 313 scenario.

My mentor’s definition of 313:

313 = sideways market.

A 313 Outside setup comprises of:

  1. A sideways market or Potential SW market
  2. A move beyond one of the boundaries of congestion
  3. But one that is within the maximum extension
  4. A bearish close below the Primary Sell Zone or a Bullish Close above the Primary Buy Zone

If the pattern comes at the end of a trend, it’s more specifically known as an Upthrust or Spring (see NOT); if it comes as a correction to a trend, it is called a 313 OUTSIDE Continuation pattern (an example of Negative Development). Unquote

An indepth study is in the book The Nature of Trends – Ray Barros (Wiley edition) that you can buy at Amazon.com

The Nature of Trends Strategies and Concepts for Successful Investing and Trading (Wiley Trading)

more information

As we all are aware, most of the time, markets do not trend but move sideways from uptrend to sideways to downtrend and so forth.

Hence, if we understand how markets behave, we can catch the opportunity to trade in a sideways market ; although we normally trade with the trend as it is our friend!